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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
4 N* C. ~: }+ ^* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
1 v9 }% R1 W0 Q8 M/ l3 x" x7 U凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k9 [% H! H1 U5 N1 W& Q8 Z8 N
, c1 B+ D; X9 U! b( OG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
5 o6 N6 Q7 L/ g) d# E6 Z# `什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [% B: N" u) o. o, W8 x
' z+ E2 T2 u, X; ^# V
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h( J. ^! R% h+ r& H2 q6 P: c& x
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
8 W; n7 j! Y$ A6 c+ ~4 \7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
2 E* w2 x0 u8 n9 Z5 M0 z做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
' y8 L) a- C) N5 N; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d# `1 o. l7 c7 `) l
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n9 e$ m7 h1 R7 s2 R q6 D
8 F$ G( a3 [8 Y! q(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 % J/ N! M" ?/ \! X) t; U5 |
8 n" I. p8 A P' E$ C2 \1 ^(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t5 {0 r3 v8 A& ?( I* U
% A: g- S5 x# c$ s- Q. ^
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 0 v/ x$ _2 U+ t* G J% j8 c
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _6 G$ a+ \) t- b, P( H+ }% a) Z
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
) O+ `- I) I+ f8 y/ \5 n5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
! U* ]+ O' x; o" x7 ~) c, C( O: US1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 B x7 [- c2 S: T( x; T6 T
) E4 s5 k( l) d: gS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
9 ?9 l* G# k/ X: M! t% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s" ?* t) |1 n x5 ]! F# @
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
& I0 \$ T7 n7 k2 s; p9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
$ o) L2 t# | P% R2 v* [S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \9 S% A5 x2 n' d+ e
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
. c6 @, U4 r' }" ?: f1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 8 l' P* M1 L2 h3 E
1 Z; k% X6 B; A! {' x( t. K
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l& q! n; h: P4 L) g& y/ Q, p
- v' d6 g; z F- i$ `& ]0 D7 z1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q; h! h$ E* K j }# W+ m
5 t) B, I/ a0 \$ }; q' N' p
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
6 _) P8 Z1 J( ?, H: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r$ f8 H. W3 X: z# x4 B
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
# i' n/ Y ]2 a
+ k: w5 }0 h4 d. G( e类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
. v; K2 r) T l4 G8 l! x$ I5 r+ b5 f9 l
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 4 \" f) y3 r# A7 S# B* j
K/ I' w( E) y6 S7 N5 F
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
0 J; D5 {5 ^8 _( t5 W6 v; m' V% T, u, P% O
7 c0 n7 A% y5 R0 mS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 2 H9 H' _/ h" j( L7 m+ C: W
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
% j, J' X! T% S& ]& _S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ; t# [' g. ^5 h. N
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~$ _3 t' V4 H' [% q+ b4 U
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o: S+ R: K |8 \$ L
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \0 H D- @0 ]) n0 v" O8 x8 x( N
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
* C- C: Y6 W4 I; p) q( ], k9 L T& t
' |5 d* f# x: ^) DB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 / C( N: }9 P1 e$ }. E) ^
8 N- y8 r) I& i7 p. A+ J1 Y: _F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
$ c# o. W) X, b8 w/ n6 B' L! E1 T2 r6 w3 z
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
" ^! e- f& {6 d- z$ u9 E9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {. i+ F3 g; E7 e9 R# f: a9 p; x* k: b
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
( X% h, J# I, ]7 r+ D$ n) P# X# M0 y) o6 y. x, @% h# g3 G$ Q
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 / w/ t. w) Z% O
R- [* m- W& [2 kG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]% q9 ^& V, H( r; ^5 v, \3 i5 g
% M% p: u/ V' G- U4 q
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \) Q+ U( W# S5 N8 }% {. c, X
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i$ {+ R6 K6 r% s. k
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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