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016 f* ?" D% }. } \
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比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。 2 d/ g$ K, p/ d6 p4 [$ z3 `
/ l! X% m0 C$ L5 U' d3 i9 a" P1 C
监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，
! F+ Y- |( J7 H% C9 K2 e- j0 t1 `' E& t5 b7 L7 E
专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 9 P( \* D& d: H/ a
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有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技
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股等风险较高的投资。 1 [6 P" y2 @+ C9 W# |
+ \" i9 Y$ z7 s
芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储1 X, i/ D5 a$ u y1 [" g
5 r8 [1 i+ D" S3 c明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。
5 f1 X" S3 Y$ Q z. U" p4 J2 s
" G7 ?0 ^* z8 o O/ D7 Q: A2 t现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动$ d" R+ V% r' a! u1 V
0 p" _6 G# M3 w' }1 o6 s因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 1 K$ B4 I. m2 ~4 G* T
# P9 v% Q: v, D# C* U* }6 @% `从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。
1 E% k2 t' s! I; `* p& {5 ~! t9 Y( c0 Z" X$ ~* r& [1 }0 E) X
更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此0 i& j0 u ^, }, D' }6 a. E2 a
0 z3 ]; ?. J" v) ]仍有许多交易商可能买入。 / h1 Y, k) b" O; q3 q
9 { W0 ]) h, K* @6 F1 z+ m
库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的
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! m$ M$ E0 |9 l2 O% H4 l. D6 P推动力之一。 ; z+ d6 p. T& @' x' y3 C5 H. f
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有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 ! Y- g; t) l7 g7 k, L
6 e F" A" e0 H6 A/ Q: G' S: S需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。
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加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣
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的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” ( C9 \' ^( G) [9 [1 g7 G& B
9 d. u. h+ d5 x7 E8 Q数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至/ V) i: }& m; `* A% O9 K
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今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。
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