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/ m5 r' ]! ?( @7 A加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
9 {7 ^5 O5 P4 Z6 A$ B3 [ W. [DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
9 y9 u X0 S# U4 e: Y衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。# ]- r( A# B3 h0 r, i4 x+ K
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.07 P m* D+ e+ P1 ?% c
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。. Z6 {% [. b. k+ }5 f
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：& T# I, g; \# E$ P: l/ V9 @* `
2024年4月第四次减半
$ u* O9 ^4 P5 s+ @' P机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF6 a2 J6 e( w; h( Z. J* N3 R, P
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
2 @$ ?2 B. u% [ R针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
2 {+ |0 o$ Q7 S0 ~9 K% L) F二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
( y2 M. S2 l" R" N+ ?$ }9 X1 vfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
0 ~3 c- u+ M0 k; DPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠4 p4 m! u$ M% @& n4 x( {& S
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
- w% H5 K& [5 W' k/ M5 L$ K三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁1 \& P$ r$ ~" S/ h
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
: i, _0 ~( M- v: A+ `金融(TradFi)产品。/ E8 u( X/ I0 d( @" B0 W
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨: e* b& [( s* P% j; b3 D- ?
链桥」的项目。! ~3 x1 K' _# P: ~) }: U8 \
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
) V2 h9 c7 N0 P. d# j- Y% s模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
! j9 d$ r6 D' q+ F等。' w: n& J2 r: A! G8 R
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用9 G# ^) V9 L0 S& O2 P- V
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。7 T) n' ~; p; i( v: ]+ @
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
7 G+ v: [' k. A hPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位+ E' n- R9 ~1 v6 k4 e+ T# P0 x
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。( C( z x9 R5 ?' ` I' r
Pantera点名了几个项目：
4 W# B( a9 j0 Y! b4 C6 aHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
6 I' D# x1 N, V0 |" pBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台, ^, l1 C: u. ?
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
" p9 z8 \4 Q$ A. K4 y7 }The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
1 u2 F" X7 G" Z$ [9 X; t; }Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游! O! B6 b, `- Y" g1 `% ?
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
5 r S( M, Z a0 u9 |! G' _Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚# ]" |. k. J6 }5 K: l
至能直接与L2竞争。
8 ]. j* ?( E# B% z1 G* v也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。3 ~$ l h. T' O8 J: E( ~
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地. b, S- D2 N1 }1 y, A8 B" K
成为「应用链」。! H d6 I& i) h# I
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。1 j& U D- J( F2 c2 E6 t
: ^- Q! h" ^6 C
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