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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。7 w$ Y e r* }7 y
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
% q$ Q H: J, D" V% m8 o+ `8 o/ d$ n5 d1 i1 @' B9 _
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:$ E! V. T) e: u/ Z) O" y
6 g6 B2 a+ b5 l* X: X6 U) X6 G皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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3 y. U/ j8 e7 V; e' M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?/ l7 S# g L% o
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
& o+ o& M5 K3 y0 t5 I3 }3 U$ r$ ~' j0 p+ ?& Z0 i+ q: ?
' Z. x% ^. d% a* X& A/ O以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?+ t" s; Q6 j) P& f6 O3 n% E0 C
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。9 V7 d2 t5 u) N% L% S2 C3 o
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增值1 L+ D% G. I4 @4 o8 E& K
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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& W' x+ |6 X- X3 s% @+ m. K9 S你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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6 z. t+ v" i4 c; m7 sa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 # H0 s- T J2 x( F" a9 P7 w& v
$ Y) e- |1 c, A正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么1 n6 T1 k# j/ z/ {' ?3 Z
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
. P) O/ G1 |" u- G60%的机会你会一无所有" l) ]: N8 E8 D |# u6 j
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 O# U, ?' p: x3 M1 G- R8 Y0 i由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。% V% [- E( C4 B8 p8 a6 A
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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+ v3 N* r/ J" O$ G! t' L凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
+ \/ f3 v+ W$ m n0 o; l% HP=获胜机会9 f3 [2 O2 B6 J: g0 O
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。& l8 e5 ^ o' u/ K5 t& @! W
0 l% i( r, w9 K, x& b( r1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)7 H+ d) B3 m3 R; m7 |$ @6 }. o4 R! t
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=07 f0 Y9 R) r( E. V4 p0 V
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢& l1 J8 \& r7 l$ V- y" u2 U; N8 D
% n* P7 Q' E* v% v2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)" ?4 M( p4 i# W4 a7 Y& d
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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6 ^% D3 o7 L& P# ~+ k& HA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 e- e# a( X/ i9 W) `3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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8 B. f/ N% [9 e, n6 nA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)7 z. g, ~" \. u3 C$ s
+ S/ T' S) p- O. e" n
A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好! P/ j* E# Q+ v% O# o
' N8 H9 C: g, n9 Q, o; }0 {7 b第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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