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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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/ ]: ]' a6 V$ |: P% F$ N8 L# u西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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4 t( k/ u& H, V8 F. l4 N很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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; U; o' d2 p5 V5 M6 B  o9 b8 j许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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' V8 {6 |3 Q) q1 f你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?' P. u- X3 [, A( F- J/ {, x9 H
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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; l) o. i6 R" C- t1 N4 N5 U- Z40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
" B6 H! [' N7 k! H, @0 @2 E6 h0 b60%的机会你会一无所有
/ S* E. c- [  D( I预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 n; |5 Z* {3 h( e2 n; k由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。  p# _3 D' k; f1 E7 s: d

% v9 A: ~, J7 }0 ]增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。# F, B  I4 ^0 ]5 N- x& F; Y9 Q

4 C2 V4 b2 p% b4 H基于增值的投注& e# ?! E' a7 k; B& w
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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5 C+ o) Q( p* e& ?' ?& |% IA=博彩资金/ Z" _! W$ l; o8 x7 O8 u
P=获胜机会
! t: \! x" l( FO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)" R4 j+ P+ T4 I# K' q
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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3 c, ?6 X7 |0 b- v- ^* q; C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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5 ]/ X7 a4 r/ b$ H% \: _$ X1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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: Y- ]: X/ `8 i" _4 n$ }5 q, F: xA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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! J4 y6 Y1 S! g. q. q结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3); n8 d% }$ D: B0 V

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6 o# a" h. V+ z! W. MA=0.1, k+ ?0 J7 e3 U8 `
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去- h/ u1 q" e& {, I. z; n8 r* Z* `

* K0 G" I8 Q2 [. a6 w5 }3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), p4 j# J# W) S! Y/ \( O

9 ]! ^& F: W7 d2 V/ b* OA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好# i( Q; }4 c  B
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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