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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

" c: n$ n7 l0 y  J! w
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
6 {$ q' L4 X+ T0 P, G10A23456789
7 ~3 H5 _6 |+ U5 f* R* H-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
& s+ l  c: M( e-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
0 [! f( _5 U% c! ~1 [" m8 f: F7 Z/ `-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133+ R* `6 }" T% D5 E( o2 _
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
1 l; Q( N8 |6 a6 Z' s2 i$ L. F# X-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108& t9 c) c- a1 h
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0964 H0 m6 l% S1 w# |
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
! Q- g6 k. O( i  c-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
1 {: @7 z2 a  q7 A  Y$ t: H  Q0 K0 o0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
) I2 Y; l+ n* F& d1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
' p# r- B+ o9 g3 v4 R+ j2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
  P, g4 n' s( w2 u  ^$ V3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
5 v9 z3 J$ I5 b6 C- E: P, e" v1 b4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028( W" }! D# {" X5 T
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
5 R! v7 a0 B, T  l' o; c6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
% t3 Q+ J3 p5 t4 ?* s7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
% O! o/ M0 p. u. N& j8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001( t$ ]5 N6 p3 T5 S- N" y- r
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996& }2 p8 m' U% r1 h
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992/ _2 }( J) A2 z6 o* [( {, ]5 x8 K
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
+ V: ^3 w: T9 K, u' r12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985, d7 q' A3 t1 V' ?* g* f" Y
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
. H4 p$ M6 S$ o: ]# L" P14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9809 n2 r, [8 B& ~0 p2 @7 Z: ]5 ?
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
2 l' m) H7 J8 p. @9 c16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
* b/ [4 h6 I' Z# y) j( H6 k8 O17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9797 J# t0 r$ E/ L7 }
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9795 `3 W; Y/ \+ j
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981; D' ^2 n: J5 B0 g
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
: N# p! A* g9 D9 u8 R3 s21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9866 z1 r9 G) e+ c
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989" \) k) i5 p+ G+ l$ c. J/ @
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
7 M& Q1 e! |2 g# m24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
7 F5 i) D3 _$ {& [6 A7 u+ n3 B* Q25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
: r; P5 \9 O3 x6 i5 H+ H

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

+ H5 K& n1 _) B
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
1 t1 H$ p) c% f6 v; i; O10A23456789
$ f6 a  {( u2 c4 w5 c* N4 E! v-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095# N( c: K- }3 z
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
5 h2 v: y+ g( M2 ~+ A4 [-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069  |0 s- D) ~. O0 E" v1 U6 S* `
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056; F% ^  R# S) b( C
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
5 a, Q' ^& k1 b0 \-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
- ]7 K8 ]6 P: b" _; [- b-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
# {7 r6 R, c# o& b0 e: X, L-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010- M; w& Y4 ?9 t6 @7 M$ O2 }  q
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
. p* p4 ^3 n5 ?9 l- v1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010* y+ f" g4 ?  a4 r& z7 a& ^# {
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
5 X0 G) z( S2 l8 x8 c5 m3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028# ]+ y' V( B5 \8 q/ u0 S+ B$ J
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
3 s4 P% _7 J1 c5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.0449 F2 Y6 J, l8 K3 S8 g& j
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0512 o+ v( ]0 F5 Q( g( c! m
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
' r/ G- v2 @. C6 S8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063) ]0 h  L3 c# ]2 m! Y& h$ Y3 C
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0684 [5 i9 I; n+ h! C  z" x
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
" l/ F* [( j+ q9 f* h+ C$ X11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076' Z; ^" g4 h8 t: i
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0793 i; {9 D8 B9 d
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0824 `6 F  i, D5 }/ M" ~2 T- [
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
& k* ?0 L+ o- X) k8 i0 L% n9 @" x$ m15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085# J; P' l5 F) M9 {
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085$ P% q2 n2 m( K: c# _  M1 a, I
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
, o% d  W  W- N' G; x/ J  M' a18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
& _, {9 a9 x( r$ d* {19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
! R4 |- U6 @7 q0 t6 @. z+ {0 ?0 x20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
9 b1 {, {- z6 I# l5 E* e6 ~21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078, P7 e& G- J- s7 v% {$ p% o* i2 W5 z
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075/ m" J, k( y$ P$ H2 ]
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0719 y3 L# o7 p/ u9 t$ H# _
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
2 W" T# k5 ^6 b; G25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0620 {: @) ?( M2 d! t5 O

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


  o5 R1 |$ h1 e- r押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
/ i( Z# I6 m  ]4 d10A23456789* s+ P0 o: w; ~+ j
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
8 N/ J1 t) v1 M-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.1370 z. P% C5 _, ?6 e9 Y* h% n
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
0 K" E- j/ r9 f6 s4 z' \3 ~-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166  A' s6 _, u$ U; A
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.1802 C# {  A3 f0 \, _  E: f
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
  z& ^2 @' t, [* l- J+ m-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205) a0 u5 ^  i- j
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
* N& e. T7 }+ p/ V9 u0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
6 r, q# D  q( h1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239  q) }) }# n7 E
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
9 A: z7 A' g, N1 I3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2583 Q& a. z0 N$ Y7 _! N' y. X* x
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
1 z& a6 Q6 h  H! H( X1 H, D. K5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2743 y" z: Y6 [: K2 M
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.2816 T8 t, n9 a. `+ F* y5 g
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287" [* J" P/ }2 `0 X
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
  |# A- ^* d- L9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
# A- X/ M4 s' ~! J+ z& Q. V10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
% u8 |, {" D1 a  i3 g1 @* i; ~3 a11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306" L/ m% {1 I9 V+ |
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
" G2 w% R# M, _( V% l" U  M$ n& C- i13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310; _2 i8 f4 [, z$ B) W
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311% j! w+ A* ]; Z2 ^5 [, N8 M
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
/ v# F9 L; B1 h- b16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
; y7 z3 Z2 J$ c& f8 s17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
, \- P! R$ k/ Y2 s18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308  ~3 W, h0 Z& q5 [4 Q1 u* W
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
9 x& j2 e/ ^' d  Y; ^! B20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3016 E5 x+ m! u2 _4 C
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.2973 M3 A. Q  P2 i( M1 N
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292; d: p( L6 ^6 c4 S: A
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
1 V0 e; H9 L; U$ f! w" r24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
- U$ Z/ @5 e$ o# N. C1 Q6 h25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
2 r1 ]! E- L" A& O* R# n+ a

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
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{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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