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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

5 Y: W7 G0 x" i
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
" a+ ]( G8 g2 ^7 Y. A10A234567893 B, a. k' N& O* ^$ s* F& |
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1597 K$ v. U' g3 k" }
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146# L0 y* ]& u* b; `; ^. J
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
! Q. ^2 n& V. |( C/ k-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1205 Y' {3 z1 d/ Z3 I+ f/ z
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108: m, E3 \3 a; C" r
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096+ h/ l0 `# h# ^( p; s5 P3 N
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
" M* U" p+ y1 X& ~& K6 B" ^-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074$ [8 u) m* f' M: l# C( }" y' @7 T2 u. ?
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
  @- T; W0 T9 q" t- v( g% j  N5 p3 N1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054$ Z9 z% `1 A. Z. {9 T$ s
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
  y6 W9 y) {2 c) K2 q  k* A+ ]3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
6 B2 N+ s- j) w# x- O4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
2 o" x' f# v& o0 Q5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0202 u4 [  X: O/ n3 `
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
# _* G# |* K7 j8 S$ R6 k7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
% w/ e5 B; r( |+ l) U* y8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
$ e0 a$ h; N- L! ]8 V9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9961 X% O. n+ f% U" I+ m2 e: Q3 V
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9927 b( S+ @2 D8 m9 Q9 x' S
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.9880 s; L) q& F4 Q4 a$ `
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
9 s$ C7 t; w; _- ?13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982( s2 \2 m# g) N* U+ @) g& Q' E( b
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980' Y8 O/ E6 U0 q& i1 Q; y3 C3 ^
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979. C3 A* [6 @: k# x% i( N! J4 T3 ]" l
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979. r7 e$ [1 [) S) [; X* a  O6 e; Y
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
* [3 y5 E& k- o# f* K: ^$ P, o18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9797 E- K. A! e! [2 B# C4 Q
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981/ X" v4 i% t2 `& t
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
; H, v* u& L) {+ x21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986- g2 r$ S4 N  S# L  a; a, j: C8 j" m
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989. l6 m; D3 y/ Y  U
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993& o. V# J  C: P
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
0 W/ |: a/ ?' v8 b  m4 L4 P25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002* i! M# n9 F$ y

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


; p9 p# Z6 \4 [) M8 O5 v$ T2 ~4 w表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
- k) M% J7 r' r) w10A23456789
; f6 A; [, X) h% a2 h-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0950 Z) x6 b/ O& G
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
9 v( r5 O' S7 a* C-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
" f5 x& X! G2 _; W-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
9 y7 k( Y- L2 D% V: I0 L. b0 {* \! F-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
9 e9 K3 K2 n# ~-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
. h, Y8 i- H" P4 W$ w& P( A-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021' U; L' h5 l, {: L1 n, @% z! L
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
8 T! v% ^5 y) b* z# ?& s1 R00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000, J8 R7 j0 t! L. Q3 E+ p
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010; C, Y1 l. r' @
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
' Z' x9 m8 m6 N" I3 N* w3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0285 r, _1 [$ Y- Z. z& x
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036" i- A. |4 z" R' z. d2 ?
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044& e2 r8 D  G0 I# z9 E
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
0 `+ _# S3 V* C7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057: }3 V0 `& l, j! Z
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
! ~4 \# p6 z+ n- B$ {9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0683 H1 E9 T- |" p9 |7 y0 X+ q- x
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
: ~* _0 X% D  H8 v6 ^11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
/ h1 l% G" c) v8 o$ g12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
2 j( v# c1 ?% ]13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0827 {* k- _+ H. Y( g& l  A4 r8 x! s
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
( B8 o( K3 U  K0 e* a) g! q15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
0 S/ @7 X" `: m$ H16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
) l! Y2 L- g  S9 z8 c7 ]17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
+ z' k  d% k3 O4 P( i5 @. P18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
& m9 j2 p1 x9 p19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
5 l/ |+ K% W5 A9 g7 Q% v20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081! q1 l0 @# q' Y# {$ U* e$ d
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
" K: j6 o7 e5 s9 I; [3 f22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0759 ?5 \! U* C9 T$ r  S
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071- Z: a9 }% X7 L* i' [6 O6 D
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
% w# C# ?0 T( k: P( `1 S- I25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0629 U- t8 M% S1 P$ C

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

$ x3 O6 ?) _, t  O7 J
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類: u% X! ]8 j( G2 D
10A23456789
6 ]9 O+ N8 s1 D) s- r-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
' M$ Q# `5 ~/ M0 b( ]-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
; E5 T4 c4 `+ @3 B" _5 a-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
' }2 Q* E1 z* k) {5 v. w-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1666 n3 R  K4 \/ u# w; i& f6 L
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180! y* Y5 w, R0 e: ^
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193, S. p- j/ f/ }$ i- Q5 n2 [7 t
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
& B  b7 d5 |$ H& ~/ [' o-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217! ~2 e1 j2 W" A9 {
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228" w8 a! W" ]& ]9 J$ @1 q
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
% l6 v5 [% M3 v, Y, v2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249! }/ I6 |, {) G" e1 i
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258* s" q6 ?5 [; n$ X& w: y7 \# E1 S
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2667 u+ E- N* [. {* `2 O
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
% s  j4 P/ ~6 \3 V3 f: g) R/ {6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281+ H/ I4 v' u* a/ B8 _* U: w  E$ x
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2878 y: N: c" {* m9 J( J
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
/ T2 q3 ~; ~# b8 ]& V/ ~- M( x9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
( n- ?" U0 s0 V9 g0 X. `10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
1 @; i; Z1 k1 g) O3 P3 z11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306% e% `. M/ [4 s- D! l6 E  o, a
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
, A# u9 J6 |& i9 b* t# L* `/ [  Y13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3109 a7 B! q9 E, i# e- Z0 I6 x5 C  V( P3 d
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3117 w( f3 E/ c+ |1 L% \5 N& B1 z
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3119 Q- ]5 X2 D/ Y) h1 ^9 V& n
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
; U. k2 m, d8 b3 G2 m3 M2 R4 d17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3103 p$ V4 s- m$ N  j8 w
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308, k2 w  u) E$ d% x5 S9 X
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
% w6 r! Z9 Q1 M- W+ o0 ~20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
# X9 p- ^' _2 \% G1 [21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297- K& g" e7 U4 e: ]9 f( w
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292. L9 w# F" C5 I: a% l& X: w2 D
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286* p; V, C1 `8 Q8 w
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
6 d; I. N& s& |- ^25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2729 W% F0 e- h' T9 f

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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