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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
; s6 T' ?9 r! V) r. L* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
" V2 H& {# i8 l+ g凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: |6 t% e$ X5 J [
/ y9 j' X5 ^9 j8 ?& C7 aG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)9 \7 R3 f1 {2 r' {. B
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [* B( B2 r! g9 u" K9 |2 {
?4 C: [8 s$ A2 W" m! J2 q. T
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
; B6 a; v$ C! U" i# r2 B既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
9 P8 ^/ e1 u, l7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s* F: Y) o9 j5 S$ x! N$ R# h4 j3 p
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `7 V$ ?; z. c- {1 K9 |, u
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
9 F" _) s( M1 K3 y& s0 h/ U(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n, j% c/ u4 p! P6 A
8 b2 E( L* Y: I(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
4 O% x. Q6 w- k, a1 G9 s6 T
0 T: a, f5 e# y$ F3 D(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t+ v8 I# y {6 U
# [1 d6 x/ o) e) H, q% j' i(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
! ?7 |6 P5 d5 }5 X- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
$ W; s1 [7 k. T) m( D4 u5 m我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
! S1 E+ ~- m/ \9 V3 K% |: ?7 L5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
. l3 \% M; F, [ u6 OS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
+ d" q% V* k* w" x. ?# E# m3 X* f+ W1 }6 b5 Z8 r9 U( i
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 5 f% l2 c5 p+ @% t
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
$ |5 e* w! f' H+ d7 US3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . l4 o% ]; w0 |- v& K- U2 L( W, C
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j! K# z0 }1 B) e% {
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
4 A( D N/ A, \6 h$ j" d8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v d5 a% w3 B/ R# Q) [6 Y' \6 J
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
6 i; l) @: Q8 ~' c1 a) G: E, G. ~, p1 c0 t7 l
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l. l T4 p I7 z# B0 h& Y9 G( D
0 F" x* w! n9 f; H1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
$ s" N9 z1 v5 X; j) y2 i6 f1 U3 {6 C+ }2 }
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ' E: u6 `$ H- `3 W- Z o5 {3 {
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
. f2 P; g& C* P4 z) }* M. c" JS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T5 g2 g1 z' {% F- X9 @2 a
; ?/ b n7 _( n! c4 S& g2 A类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
t8 E3 W' A* A5 E3 S- A7 w {' Z6 L% |% M% g! M# z
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
0 O+ }, B" q1 t" i) v* k' y2 d# @; R& l. g
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
. t1 X8 f% E" U. m. U) j; m' V% T, u, P% O/ P7 }; B& t+ g" X8 c
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
: _- w6 b- y2 j, u6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
5 n! B" j- k) d6 `S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
7 M' h* m# M- W3 C0 P- G+ \: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~) Y% B" z. x6 Y: ]% y
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o7 @5 J, {" n" u
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
& G1 P2 |% F4 Z好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 # Q6 b3 u( j5 e% A
) q( ], k9 L T& t
+ h6 T: r1 X9 d* U* u; sB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 9 ^& O5 h" C- @/ O/ |& d6 Q
N. `4 @3 C s% v
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 1 s; | i9 h9 V& G* t/ j* @3 d4 V
/ D6 l# k/ W1 c. F9 ^
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?! N! N$ V( x" l4 ?
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {/ j# w3 y. F- [1 {
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M) }! n7 Q4 E* F8 {- u4 i4 L
+ D$ n) P# X# M7 M+ W; z6 h5 Z; ~/ x* U" `. L9 y7 r5 s
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 , X# q8 y3 T. I! |. u
# L; B4 R$ ~+ S* e/ w) }, QG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]' Z- r2 F) E+ [7 h/ Y3 ^
# @/ a- V9 j- h4 _4 \+ r当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \4 ]3 P8 z; y; L |' m) L7 E
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i2 U" r, R( m5 M( n1 V, G% E
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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