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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 " q0 U( ^+ \: E$ N
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其实原文标题不是这样的5 B6 s3 M% a. b4 R/ D- ^ G
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!* R A0 @! j5 J; i! [
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
+ R! I3 F: }: l5 {) Y, e" z% m他希望能和上帝来场赌局。1 W% d4 l& b# P/ Z9 d
+ M: O' a# T3 b8 O; @2 @
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
7 g( R8 _" F) V3 ^! a
: @& F( u8 _) H: \' }9 S 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
0 Z% Q' S' f0 \ ?7 o _) g
* d$ g+ A$ e/ i7 w7 e7 K" `) d& a「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 6 |1 ?: P( F8 N) l7 o
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
" F+ t7 I8 ^/ N3 z0 V: f- ~" L6 B5 u: C6 n; A4 P
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
. p. k4 o1 h5 S8 R0 h
6 R' [' m+ k1 z( F接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，, ^. d. e* P, j' S; P
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
+ L) L7 l! t/ u4 w& b8 b/ ^长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
& k) @8 P; n8 ~ @9 S因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
+ z" [: U9 J- d) M5 `5 A& G1 {心想赢定了。. c) j4 L8 I; J( f* E
7 ]& r0 I' Q9 o4 b% V2 _& \3 \6 J没想到开始不到半刻钟，
7 m& S% p. R7 v- A赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」& n, M2 e/ i3 l e* E
" Q6 Y+ b6 v4 [ Q9 b赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
# z2 E* U3 ?7 @7 ^但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。; }1 \5 h. l5 S6 y- H* \! P! P' A
3 [( z3 L1 v6 e% ~3 v# b4 }1 f
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
+ M/ I2 ~. V; @他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 + D' j9 N; D7 @) `
上帝回答道：
' _# U" W: K3 a- v8 j% Q「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」' q% p7 A* o! m9 A' j! O
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
# g% ~6 d1 t0 J# v" S5 F「而不是先发生在我身上。」
/ B0 A+ }, M6 d; a7 [+ X+ S+ c3 O% |" Z. G+ W
赌徒恍然大悟，0 f( |2 p) }7 W4 W8 o) o8 o* [
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
( ?3 ^& F; n' j6 u竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！, R8 i! T; a3 K/ s7 B4 Y4 I: M2 q9 A
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
( C. f7 p: q2 |9 d: v$ c7 V3 y上帝说完便不见踪影。 4 S2 X$ k4 f2 |! ?, z- n- o& @
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，' [/ k9 F* Q" Q
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，4 }8 M- [" K! t1 k! Q
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
: P% T" ?$ _3 B8 Z: V. f! s$ K v对赌徒十分有利。& x2 }2 r7 V% C
# ~+ w1 N. f9 Q @* B' N6 |
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，+ K& G! P4 ~* {- ^+ q' S; m4 V
在还没掷到1000次之前，
0 N/ ]8 T! n0 W E仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
5 c7 u* U& n- P5 k8 [) [) ^2 l$ y- F+ B
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
9 Y9 `' V" ]% D1 x% Q6 c! G0 a: Z1 q( @2 h- i% U
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。5 a) r v% B- b! t* g1 O+ ?. M
, T! j8 W: B# ]: }
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
4 E; R/ z- w& A- k3 }% O+ l. D. W- N: f: p: _
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 8 |2 ]2 t$ J" X0 d- w$ ]
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