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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 ( {# V1 V" ?3 q5 W$ f6 z
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其实原文标题不是这样的
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9 f, J. B7 _! D: I这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
; N4 b. \3 a9 l8 r他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
# Q" N( R" t* s, }! Z( c! H7 e
: i7 y+ d6 ], t5 D7 z% [9 k 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。+ T d7 X1 i% K. ^
, X* P; ?; Z5 ` 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
$ S" b7 l; _8 k. t1 R
* B/ L9 R& T r) `# e [「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 % G H1 b5 i7 B
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
M4 K( _% ?: L7 F- G) i1 ~& o+ {/ F% r0 y- \4 W0 l* ]
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，9 r1 U7 a h: U; e0 p
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
P7 m; _$ g9 n3 |* g% P( a! |) V长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
+ E/ S0 q- w7 U: ?* N$ i因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。6 j! e6 x+ p$ v% _3 N4 Z. q2 o
心想赢定了。1 j* u; i% e+ T/ }+ B5 Z4 H! L
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
3 y, x% p8 ~2 j# T. N W! o' _8 k1 a赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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& _0 f! s" Z. ?% H. z赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
) O% ^9 m2 Y# Z& P _: @' j6 d- P. T但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。- K8 ?4 H- B4 M# x: T
% F$ y0 j: }# p* P, e+ L; t赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
. |& ?7 d( ?, M他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：+ I* j' j. F( q1 |9 @
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
5 ?# H2 z1 D. \7 \「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」1 }$ n4 N! @3 N+ n3 }! q$ Z y
「而不是先发生在我身上。」' a3 [2 d+ M( x
1 }& e z3 m" m 赌徒恍然大悟，
# b W: _" J% w+ S原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，+ E7 [: w7 H" `
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！7 c1 t+ n O( R7 E" F# P
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」/ A8 y6 v% ^( ^: g% C3 c7 E; T; v& D1 y
上帝说完便不见踪影。
3 f, Y4 P8 D+ \6 E( m7 e; t3 {
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
; H G3 M4 o. z) [$ H( p若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
$ O6 b% b' s! x1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
9 k9 {# @7 }8 V对赌徒十分有利。0 {7 P% h) h; w8 z
4 w" W5 Z, p6 z; m但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，" f% S! Q3 B- M( R5 y1 h) ]
在还没掷到1000次之前，/ \; m7 s5 g& l7 L' D9 }
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。; v8 g/ S4 u7 e' p; `
+ `5 {5 a+ G0 R# i
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。1 V h* e4 p3 u* C: z% |8 O: ]
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
3 a* G7 L( [- {/ {) X A+ C. S
- t2 ?3 P1 g' j" c, @ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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4 Q$ N4 g/ f4 }# r s4 {5 x 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ ; `) C* f. T1 }& {( i
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