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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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3 W! i& i) U4 s5 Q) a6 r西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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9 ]# `% s+ `* Q; X4 k皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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/ p; Z0 r& F" L3 R很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 K0 M  N# ^7 g

1 X1 o' q8 D: o3 }" o/ E答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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1 J% E, T  G& G7 f- N; ~8 D, g以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?+ z7 L# D  |1 {; y

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盈利可能性2 }( B& C! d0 X- z: n) e8 Q
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。: B8 u+ E  A( y* Q5 u+ Y

+ o- Z9 l) q* P+ A增值
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5 B, y6 N( D$ M2 }许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, I3 w! l( c) {3 D7 e

- _" X( n( J6 J# ~! f- j, N" |你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?: Q' }3 {0 Q5 D/ c; v) u7 p* k
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 : ]! T$ Y& d$ W+ L" ~9 a
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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1 h8 e  g" G* d- T- o5 l40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 c7 L2 I3 t# N7 x2 f# B0 ^( Z
60%的机会你会一无所有) n, u. H4 I7 ^* a
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
  x/ @* T3 B& K4 D; P8 T由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。# i3 v, x/ C/ [) U* q5 G4 d
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注& ?4 m5 Y/ B( d$ Z' E7 ^

- p; {, M/ T7 C凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 b+ H  D" \6 g

2 O! M4 F0 d# j* }6 x7 r0 ?公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
& l3 i* I  w/ h) A0 Q$ k3 K6 T& OP=获胜机会/ c2 f$ h& L' C  N
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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9 }/ K: }, t# P3 }  v! f首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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3 n" _( }9 ], H8 I- {  Y* \好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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' e1 i$ q/ ]' \; U2 d" y1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)* a8 U; i" L  X% b
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A=0' ~7 u9 c' k# e3 H0 D$ Q
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3); {8 F1 P! o& m# l9 o( m- \) @' @
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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: g* L# Q/ e' y* J1 e9 _3 h! \, MA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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! h0 u8 o# q) {/ T  s8 I0 U0 SA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 1 G2 v. Q, O7 O4 k( U+ X5 w3 \3 }

! t" b3 O% k- I# E1 w! ]结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好( c% M: Z* H, h! Y
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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