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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
; R* K1 S \! y4 ^* U+ K+ i余勋也不例外、
h) e7 l8 L* n& y; Z: {其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
/ M5 Z7 `- u- v6 s ^$ R8 q是保经济的重要决策！ & G; d' E5 W) B# z
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
/ f# q6 P- S$ L4 D低点26700-32400、
; ~1 N% U# t- @ V/ G反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
2 [. d* B( I' j$ x. z" x但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 1 O2 M' E. `2 j. i' ~
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 U: y& a! P- }
涨幅就已回撤过半！ : t3 S' ^! x* b* O4 @7 k7 i
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
! y6 u9 F4 I8 `1 O( G" w不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 7 O# s& M4 V# P! y4 m# `0 Y( j
其次、
9 [* c0 Z+ J0 X& U0 o缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 3 A8 i2 N8 B& c; H1 D
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
; L! {8 m) S1 S1 K4 p等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 ^4 r3 g. H# p) Q2 H( b4 j+ c
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 D! ^( g% w, v1 H/ J; j
但回到币圈、
" g$ l$ X) c9 m$ I) C/ G去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
% q* ]# D) F* W* D在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 0 X! u/ E/ J" d. M" ~5 G
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 5 z9 w3 ^: y! T# g+ H8 l+ D+ x
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
; `% S1 z) K# N$ b缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
9 ^- H! s% W8 u" g" W对当前的底部、影响有限。
& Q) f$ V# q4 l$ | @最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 # i. `# G8 d! P- @. |
所以27000、即是 " K' v3 T R X( W+ Y/ {
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
2 {( d8 ?4 u9 R3 Q/ j: R同时还是去年放水初期低点、
* w$ c* ?7 C! i# }也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 / i3 W% B, Y% j/ m* v
由此得出的结论是、 . H1 r1 j# q+ P
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 - c) w% n, f0 W9 i: {
点位不会出现太大偏离。 3 E* @. f* i( B% L" w: y# f
综合以上、
# Z, @1 j: ^( b' E& J美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ( Z/ A" } j* d' m
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 . P. J$ \1 l& ~9 X- S R
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 d7 J! H- R w. U0 U7 J* N
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
0 p6 w9 P e) i$ w9 D# m' e那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 0 R, L" q6 l. R& J
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
+ j- L$ ] G I2 e' c7 x% k美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 / I3 l V5 |# e3 o( X
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
1 k8 @5 ~, E3 k0 \! ~( b大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
0 Q3 d1 j! D, B- I% ]逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 " g. q" w# u$ o4 w0 [/ G; L& `5 F& ~# c& S
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
1 \" V: q' V% _% C; o7 e反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 9 Q" B4 r9 F. s2 Z: {
得不偿失。
- [6 t+ ]. Z' C; S' Z9 X来源：金色财经 |
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