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[lastpost] => 2796861 传奇交易员彼得·布兰特刚刚否定了比特币最大的看跌信号。（转） 1768320410 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
( p% |' o( f' N余勋也不例外、 / y! f# w" ?0 {4 a4 z$ O0 A
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 {( N% I+ |/ y9 n9 V* H
是保经济的重要决策！ 4 z# m' @9 Y8 P3 `) V
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
- l* F1 I* ?* X$ D5 i低点26700-32400、 4 g: w# I+ G! [; [ S. {+ F
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
3 U h8 b% {) g3 M0 X, ~+ e: S但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
], E3 q- | `$ [, o2 t大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ' {! @' J; q) a
涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 l9 Q, P4 r- R1 K所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
- G U( v7 o# r8 }# B: m3 p _6 Q不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 4 r* z9 S! l4 C/ y( X, X! A
其次、
( }5 R% v# Q1 L6 C5 p/ W5 r% o缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 : a" G1 s3 O$ k, ~3 v& A* g
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 2 j s; U8 C& w4 a$ e6 {
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ! V, U2 ]& l* D- j
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
: f) P2 O8 G3 R' T但回到币圈、
& r$ P$ y2 \6 r4 l V9 C( V去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 p8 ^' n( r) \, R" Z- Z7 q( B
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
1 g) c3 Q* x) ?* }! _而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 - E+ w0 g# r5 ^$ ]2 k
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 4 r" B4 V( P. P
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 1 J' L7 C8 x( F. B! [& _
对当前的底部、影响有限。
- f! |8 h% c, e1 p' n: p6 N' y/ l最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ! F6 W: k8 |4 ?8 y) }0 g% I7 Z
所以27000、即是 7 u2 E- }$ z+ ?
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
8 X6 C7 ^( H& r' P! L同时还是去年放水初期低点、 0 U, T: `# E- y. h: [9 @
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
- w2 z4 L7 g: F. S# D- r5 C. t; ` p由此得出的结论是、
/ C5 m$ T6 i$ P/ U加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 " Y" y5 I1 B+ {1 M; b4 {; v
点位不会出现太大偏离。 7 |$ h V% i) {8 b" ~7 | v4 D
综合以上、 0 P+ ^/ w+ u& X) V, n& U
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& ~' f, e) g; O L2 j在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 4 v! i0 f% @" j
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 / u, M" J: a* P q" T4 y& z
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
6 i1 y& m1 K2 y6 L8 M$ z+ B那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
7 x9 p! C! y2 ]2 }即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
+ l( u2 Q5 c4 B3 s6 S( P0 K美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
$ ^2 Y8 \' f, J% n) A# x夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ! s! [. [4 k- C, L
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 & [% @/ L/ U/ c
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
4 v4 a& d2 C9 {1 C A高空需至31700-32000间布局、
8 D- u0 n" f! s2 @0 o: I5 p反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 2 n; Z8 G0 ?* |1 P
得不偿失。 O' H; B& ^# b
来源：金色财经 |
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