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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
% z1 t( k% i L& D9 w- Z. n余勋也不例外、
7 R! E2 T. I4 K3 d. ?( K其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
a9 g% X9 V0 ^" x7 V% O是保经济的重要决策！
3 ?$ F# L. A9 ?0 U% o这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ' H8 o$ }8 ^5 w ?* S `
低点26700-32400、
# ~$ n% e+ B, O. A反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
0 q, U# @5 E: [/ J# \但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
* l$ d3 z& q& u, R" L; H9 c1 \大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 4 e. ^/ P1 K' r( }* x4 n" C$ o
涨幅就已回撤过半！
: V' T; D2 d( _; {所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 " [) u; v6 l1 A9 l9 o- t5 n
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
! M6 f# i- z* L# T7 J其次、
; o3 Z* G4 p! ]0 Z+ N# r缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 7 M6 y' F% j8 ?# V: T/ `0 x
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
( N. @' H9 E* M C1 y7 ~" P7 t等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
# A& P; ^) f3 q* W5 d) _- O( L美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 8 q q' w% T5 S! N
但回到币圈、 7 r0 @9 s b# f* [( |1 i' r) z+ D
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 2 M7 D. J6 e9 I% V+ @8 ?3 G
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
, b( `8 p: ]# u而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
2 ^" e( i3 t' u* d8 }个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
' Q( _( Z" @: E; m# s! V ?缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
0 k& c0 p7 ?8 D& `1 ^) r2 O" I对当前的底部、影响有限。 # e' D- o) g1 K5 j
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 * y* Z- N5 g5 }- n( N4 Q7 I. y
所以27000、即是
, H( }8 k- Q; p# m0 t8 ?去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
) n6 r: o a; u' ~8 U同时还是去年放水初期低点、 1 ]( o. |+ }- U
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 , d" f {3 u! p$ i. V) J, g; C
由此得出的结论是、 3 g }, A7 Z6 v6 T: O
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 " u, w4 J& l( K( E* J6 z, {! }) E* X
点位不会出现太大偏离。
8 [/ |* X7 O' Z5 L0 M, d, v) ^综合以上、
- G( }( @4 p* b7 t4 a! f" X美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 & o1 ~9 K( _1 x a! u. p
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 " |" q/ X0 q* K m4 S% g" s
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
% Y( |7 i3 o* F) k; w. q抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 * ~, M i! P2 Q- {2 [' V8 m
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 ) a7 y' {5 X2 y" n
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
& ]1 V3 p7 u" T% z7 K6 p美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
: l) s( L3 w& K2 w5 r夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 8 x5 \& F$ Q$ f# w& q- h# J" }
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 9 H$ F& J5 V" b. R H [* |
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
# w) h m& _6 V高空需至31700-32000间布局、
2 i! y; x. W( J反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
- Z6 m, g0 e: e/ t! m$ W( X0 N u得不偿失。 - E: ~! j* D" E8 P9 \
来源：金色财经 |
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