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( @5 Y- h7 J- B# N( a/ L
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
( h3 q. H8 g3 E% z9 k- yDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
. v, @& T+ `9 a& H" I% ]衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
+ n) T! h- }. g3 p- m* }一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
8 C( E, T5 [- Z8 C+ R( n) pBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
; L5 Z, o! ?4 S9 u& Y0 G/ aPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：1 A; h! W& Z- X' i- p$ E: O
2024年4月第四次减半
% ^9 Q( O. Q" G' K; o) H( R机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF/ j1 O% [- U6 x' @
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock); B3 k: i6 _" P; ~9 U
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
: P7 c3 Y9 s: }, ]4 T4 z二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务+ ]8 n( `7 v) o6 @) g4 `
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。# k* G0 _' M- I" D/ s
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
0 F$ y, U- t q1 }# L) D; U# q诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。( g+ V$ |( N" t
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁& c- ?1 q1 ~+ r, Y6 \" P" _! F; J
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统* N P; }. d* U3 }" d
金融(TradFi)产品。, Z4 _8 P5 t% C; ~7 F0 [% A- r- s# Y
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
. B! k0 b- j7 e6 K: @链桥」的项目。
6 M& q2 a7 V# I8 l3 T) M7 `四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉 `0 V% P' Q" C3 ], W$ p
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
- X7 a# J7 I1 Q) S8 ?% e等。
- _' H* S/ ^" yPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用* G6 S$ Y; \7 q+ d0 y/ [
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
0 W2 z( z) V) ]. |1 g, F0 |五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
! u4 C. g( B! t# k: u" d, d1 qPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
1 n/ A" H' T6 ?数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。- q$ z2 u# P: f% K
Pantera点名了几个项目：
5 o% T* r; a" w- c$ E+ g" y$ E3 \Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图/ {6 O- B' I' C
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
. O m% i A) g2 U, P. \Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品& `$ A% G8 w$ v2 v
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划! z# {$ i" g8 Q! u. z$ c8 @
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
2 p ?1 Y" |2 f. P六、小型公链需专注特定应用
! _: Z& l& [" o/ z/ ]$ w3 W* Z6 R }1 OPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
$ Q2 ~( ^0 R6 B5 P至能直接与L2竞争。
: B% ^- K; e) F* }3 V% Y8 C也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。" h$ R9 Z6 W( H6 t! ]2 Y2 U
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地. ~9 I$ C2 l; s
成为「应用链」。+ R6 y" {& ~+ l
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。3 W2 ]4 G- c& H' I, n
: `6 D, a4 P3 x- W$ w' ]7 M
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