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2 w t' d" F y" Y7 o加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
- Z$ k. P! }4 A( V5 ODeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，# ~0 P9 u7 @0 s* l% t; C
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
3 ?& T9 H4 F: d3 Q* c4 l一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0. t6 t3 w+ m4 C6 N ~- r* }- y+ s- x
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
4 u$ g2 s, S* Q0 UPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
9 Z; w7 {9 n0 Z% ^5 R2024年4月第四次减半
( [+ e# F$ p. v1 h- S: ?4 E- o I机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
5 C# b B; i! E0 |- |9 `( e可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock); a3 F5 n4 D( O( U
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。& C4 m( W* Q. u" y1 o8 Q
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
T; ? m# P8 m: d0 n2 Ifriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。' m H% e5 b) A
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠. H. ~- e# }# |/ Z
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。1 `: o4 m8 `2 Z/ ~/ Z
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
7 i. p& `8 ^7 @除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
& r6 a* n" r9 R金融(TradFi)产品。
" ~: V* C/ k! t6 }& |如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
4 t1 X, ~6 P# ?! {4 u+ R; k链桥」的项目。+ \$ w2 Y5 ]; z, a) D
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉+ `4 \$ [& S8 [7 H1 v
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作9 O b" D& f1 T1 g
等。
, a9 O# K: ^8 u$ ]# k: J# S, QPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用! z( R+ d+ ^4 d5 e/ l5 |8 ]3 n
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。' ^2 e8 c% |6 A
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN4 H5 n o. p5 d; |2 n) r) W
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
7 U* C% g9 M+ m8 ^1 Q数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
' U; `1 |4 [6 w V9 aPantera点名了几个项目：9 ]$ Z, S' r4 I$ x X( O5 ^1 m; W
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图 ~ Y! S0 w. D" R/ u6 [- G
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
& l; f" F5 `% V& m- AModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品! n8 a. \4 K; V" f
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
7 H n0 K' k1 E/ W$ gRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
0 [3 x$ I4 \" u, ^六、小型公链需专注特定应用- T7 l7 |. k; E% h
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚3 j% ~; ]( r" _' F2 M
至能直接与L2竞争。
. B; o5 |& z1 B! U也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
9 ~3 K; W, z4 a, U oPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地2 v2 Y9 l. t% ]4 {
成为「应用链」。
, _: I$ }+ _: C v* E9 _) s( l* ?事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
r% f+ I3 O: @. l& v0 \. R u. H2 J1 N' ]- Y E A6 S
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