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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘' e( N& X; E6 n" l5 }" u
) t- |6 ?5 s2 ^3 B9 B7 X7 r1 F9 r' F
平手中水,主队有利. g+ g) t. Q$ [, R
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
7 v! `2 N, A1 `' w, h 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
, \, t" J5 Q) Z: N$ _( C0 _1 J 英超主队
3 g& T$ ~$ ?% e% W 胜:13场 48%
5 p- ]1 D1 ^1 F8 V, y$ u$ p e 平:5场 17%9 k; ]6 m/ N& t; X& _, |" ~
负:9场 35%
. L0 W% @! J0 v( R& U2 m+ g( g 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
n# u( k, Y4 ~- O" F4 M6 |
. T, g1 S5 m! J( L0 V& Q3 t 一、初盘阶段 o2 H, d! @$ c/ m f
具体到水位如下:
5 ]. F6 I2 R, J9 H 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
: J/ q5 p' w/ f 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负; L( n" y; @1 E/ R4 g4 d: l7 T
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
3 C! U3 L1 f. w# }+ A- [( B9 a& R# r . {' j! I; e5 X" X! J
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。9 \2 X5 V& U3 _+ F8 L+ [+ A: q) z
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。+ E, {( p P. X5 M, d6 j- k/ ?
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
3 P- O+ q- z5 q2 v/ H& T
! F2 X0 }# o6 ~: K! }8 D 二、临场阶段. n) S# m$ i: e, T+ k, o
$ ^. v$ q5 e% I4 ^$ ~ 具体到变盘和水位如下:. t u+ [& y& G& S
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
9 l1 s9 t2 O, K- N' c 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负5 U9 O& l1 J$ _8 z) {8 c6 E
- S, ^; p% E5 _( k 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。4 f! E' x. @0 A! x# F+ j
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
; H+ {/ w# G$ ~" N7 r- k . P, d, l% {: W# H. j6 J/ t- n, ]1 o
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
6 ^5 C: H8 B- y4 E 初盘:0.82平手1.04
1 L6 v* V! [. I7 j 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.855 }5 k$ E$ {, @; }1 I& U
. d$ `3 G3 R2 U2 `; z
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆' ^4 z& L4 w; f/ ~. D, q
初盘:0.76平手1.10, ^ c# |2 z$ `* K3 v6 l
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
: G o! P) b- u- t . M+ n; e; b3 |) ^
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技 Y* j; ?" _- b* A$ |3 d, m
初盘:0.82平手1.04 G& ]0 D+ b/ t
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98* q5 P% R' c! m+ Z3 V
1 F: H, N) U) g1 A' z, P4 o 伯恩利2-1西汉姆* t% k8 _3 y9 ?3 p7 Q. F6 {" ~8 r& R
初盘:0.88平手0.98 a" h5 J* N$ K3 V, z
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
( H; f2 U- ?: P" @. R 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
* o$ s& t; Y- M* b1 T' m5 E+ d 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
8 I, l# }* | g& j 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
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三、球队表现
' l" ~- a9 q# S. M
) B" Z5 q- V2 H6 p/ k 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。* o$ U" j( ~/ g# D3 i# L' e
! z( t- y2 W2 ~0 A v
四、投注要点6 u* V) j, c" H- Y; x! X
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 u ^0 z8 p1 {+ k: \/ Y 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
' `* q# y1 ^2 A# f0 d) L- A2 d 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
0 t6 u/ u% r2 v* Z$ Z5 I 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 V: \6 x/ t( b* [7 T: I, c 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
& h" H0 h, t- z, }* i 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
6 n: c& _" v/ q 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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