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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
- r1 O6 W. N/ z! O- f' c - w) r4 m4 w1 O# @) \
平手中水,主队有利/ G4 H$ u4 A3 {; u4 [* N
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
/ c1 m- O" q3 N5 D9 u: ` 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:( I! I+ M- q4 f: T/ C2 J
英超主队' D2 ^5 g( B+ E& ^+ E1 M
胜:13场 48%
- s s/ [4 J8 t0 v5 V. K 平:5场 17%
! ?$ c$ \; R2 m" j 负:9场 35%5 v, V2 ]+ ] W* H
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。: x( ?7 `) x% o) I: O$ B5 s; c
% b- q! k8 j9 [! P 一、初盘阶段
& u* A6 B2 {5 m' m9 ? 具体到水位如下:+ y/ F+ e$ {: s, ^
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
; o4 M) Z {! t# f; r- }4 d 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
. V K5 [- ?; g9 S3 k8 V5 Z( } 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
; M2 n7 J9 v/ h5 [ 1 U3 W+ E" L7 p2 b( D
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
5 n$ X) [$ Z$ @# i! z5 l+ q; L 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。1 |1 {% y) r! m/ U# ?7 a) e& t
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。8 m$ n6 i9 `( F0 N
3 ~/ l# i* l$ G. u 二、临场阶段
" G7 j0 r. {8 z3 ^
# W. O0 O, w. R& s* ~ 具体到变盘和水位如下:9 [6 T6 [! Q1 Z; Q, P9 a! d
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" \4 U* [8 B" m0 `3 [9 n* A
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
3 Q4 g+ F7 }: N7 B' y 8 L& ~. c% r2 h, A* U
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 i" L2 X( ^$ W' B* \+ v' x
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:6 O( h A @9 ]- _! O* m1 J
4 t% [/ a& p+ Y6 a$ [. p( M 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿- |( ~$ ~. D M$ x0 n) [& E
初盘:0.82平手1.04
1 W( o5 C& T# v2 y 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85! \& F v& ^# L3 h; P: h% p9 v
3 Y- ~! I) r. c6 I
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆5 |" ~. L* ?* J/ O# h
初盘:0.76平手1.10
$ N% x( C' v- s( K; n- D+ ^( i, D* l 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
% w3 A: z# C* Y1 r4 v% K, ]* v
7 |) j: V% M$ L: q5 l4 I 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技( J' U6 [* X; k6 J+ r1 y* @/ f
初盘:0.82平手1.04
" f9 f# y8 Z$ W" ^& U0 V 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
& h5 V3 x" x# a# ~+ e/ X$ b4 P
. J) Q. ?( d5 R6 k0 ]8 Z9 f. B 伯恩利2-1西汉姆" a7 I# @+ c$ }9 R+ c
初盘:0.88平手0.98
4 k* f* s( T0 t' u8 U 终盘:1.12平/半0.743 J% }' l1 V8 R2 t+ _! p
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: h$ n E0 g. l/ G0 S4 N, c 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: _% d! @/ }- V- j
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
8 ^5 d/ \6 W: u( A! m& L9 j4 K+ t3 S & e. _/ z4 t. L T. G/ w/ x
三、球队表现
6 `& U& F4 W$ G" ?
, p+ I! g/ ]* b 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 V9 ^1 Y9 u) I) x9 o( |; p$ j . A! l# X$ V4 u; Q6 ]1 n$ c
四、投注要点
; h, u; z; x' y0 ?, t9 N: C 要点1:平手中水、主多不败$ y4 Z3 T" d4 ^( y- i/ t! d9 s$ e
要点2:平手降盘、走两头7 ~0 U: x4 O S. n: h6 L
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
- c1 M9 w2 j# u, Q+ K4 q7 A5 c 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
9 ?7 [/ _( ^+ f4 E! T! i& ` 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任& t( b, F6 K! k4 q
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
, g. b6 u3 W2 a9 L' a0 j4 i$ Y 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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