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[lastpost] => 2808960 比特币暴跌加剧：散户难以消化28.1亿美元的资金流出（转） 1771981133 22301
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。
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市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。
# ~+ O4 M8 Z5 D7 Y3 x0 c一、先说技术面
( p3 x8 |8 s3 G1 H8 e- S- E! ^这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！; t! D9 N. P/ Q$ K
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！) y B9 U; _2 ]$ t+ S! }
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二、再看宏观
; j) @! a. r) D( w: b6 d以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。
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1 J6 g7 u% R- R! X/ S1 h! U8 K3 B2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。0 _( h/ b6 V/ `3 E2 j, {5 N9 R( X
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2 M5 Z& l; ^) {ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！3 ]( x: m6 G% R3 c2 ]8 e8 Y, m! V
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交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。7 h1 h, i7 _, k2 x# J9 p! [
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1 H D5 u( K/ K1 W% M所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜
" G7 ?. I ^7 B" l三、机构在买，而不是跑
" Y3 k1 w, {; Y/ n) }4 f/ J散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。& u9 m+ t8 g' n' m. n! {$ }, ?
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: N. g4 b4 B2 T# F+ |1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。* `: U- Y! F. S0 g$ Z4 Z6 l7 w
近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
& a! n5 y, L, p8 c1 D四、2026 年路线图聚焦( B! F; c4 ?6 @
升级方向包括：
# c( m7 L* B+ |3 ?提升 Gas 上限
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6 e& |0 Y$ u( Z$ }1 N6 t' ~- O% ?( E增强 L2 互操作性; C! g! V0 l9 O6 ^6 [
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扩展零知识基础设施
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账户抽象; m. {4 Y2 l) S% I! e
+ o, S3 N& w8 U6 B抗量子安全1 U* V5 ~$ ], ~1 X, h
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Harden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”7 f6 w; n: {0 [1 }
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所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。
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这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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