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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。2 R0 x% W4 \+ F
0 E6 f1 i6 M' P3 T
市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。
# u0 o2 r' Q3 P) K# X; z一、先说技术面
: E0 u7 x$ p5 m! ?9 g- x这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！; W) t# O* d9 B. F
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！3 b# H, q# ]$ w" `3 j4 @2 k' U! I
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$ X! ] ]0 {1 Q7 M二、再看宏观
1 W: q5 z& H) a7 {( {1 b以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。$ Q/ l) m; x4 T2 \6 b
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2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。+ w3 L( m1 o* D
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- f, ?0 H% n: j& E1 d0 jETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！0 N+ b9 ?& d0 P9 b7 L$ l, f% i
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& M+ S; S! \% Q: g6 S, f & r, N! }7 B' }3 t
交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。
4 Z+ v, w }6 e7 m& ] }- Q# z$ V6 a% D# j, L4 `( {6 D
$ ^& v1 Q" R- ]9 w, n# L, Z# |* o 5 T% j" }9 V+ b1 S: S
所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜
2 C9 S( K5 s0 a" E) X三、机构在买，而不是跑' g. A6 Q' e0 D) [" N: I) Q
散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。" \3 H: }4 K$ P' d
! L% I7 `# R! F( l. e$ ] 9 c) U7 N- g/ \1 t3 g
3 w# @% _+ T, G: C1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
8 \; F' X! T, {+ }9 _9 p* L近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。+ ?$ d' o/ e; g% V8 ?: k4 h
四、2026 年路线图聚焦
4 a3 V7 u) w* N6 M7 P Q V升级方向包括：
9 ~1 ]: Q% Y6 C' P9 m& L9 A# y: Q提升 Gas 上限
+ B; o/ z! a* f C
6 N. H* ?2 D; v: M _+ |. M; J增强 L2 互操作性! E1 r* Y" |) c! h# e! Q
* _: W* U: U& h0 l* ^1 ~: R
扩展零知识基础设施. L0 [! J n Z( F
- v2 E; K$ ]# e3 P账户抽象
8 S2 {8 ?5 V' V2 D' P! B
6 z# y9 u. Q' H/ F/ O6 D抗量子安全
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" r+ Y! b9 O# g: y. r4 m% DHarden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”: @1 ?* |9 N% n1 b& G9 d' I
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所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。
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& G& ]- {8 a, ?这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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