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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ {3 ]6 z5 `1 \6 q1 g- P
* D7 s' S9 q3 e O" I8 l; t+ K
/ b3 K) W# r/ O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率5 m8 ]1 i% H: g* a
2 ^; w% p9 t; R" ~! P) q* Z以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- \/ v0 d- p8 O: e1 g7 k/ O
x. l d& m U) s5 C: Z% |皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% + o. s$ l# D1 A) i) I: h5 F
1 A6 R# P+ U/ `
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
$ d$ H: l, a1 A
- {* ~9 ]) ]2 I" k: s8 Q k2 f* F答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
2 `, }8 i+ g; |7 O' t( b1 a9 h
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?# r9 Z6 z: L: ]1 l1 W
0 ^. [) ^0 Y/ w* f- I6 x3 `$ p
% ]1 \; ?+ G# z; ]: u C. D8 a
盈利可能性6 A' ^" B+ E9 v/ N0 w
' B" }; Q) t7 v6 Z
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。% _" Z# ]5 A7 P9 O
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。 N, g( S: O: m
5 m7 q. I: s7 S! a) A/ V你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 ~# u/ I# B; z
- E2 B3 G6 j. Ja) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 $ d. K( c0 @& t( q" I. r% `3 o
2 f( M4 U# ]* O2 P1 T6 }
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么" `& g5 [( F1 r0 ]. l& {
+ ]: \+ j3 z5 q& T; t3 a, r) h
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
) T( k: S: @" [/ _9 u& Q60%的机会你会一无所有
! Y$ N, ], ^, n* C/ B/ Z预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& {) U" \$ W- `% w. L/ g由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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3 W! F# h J) u2 |. h% w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。% l! n) s- L' U& r# _, m
8 c1 K& ~$ I7 c4 _/ v基于增值的投注$ j+ J: y2 F2 |5 Y4 |0 m, H
% A) F3 B: ^( E) X
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
6 [2 v( T0 D1 A% u4 c( P9 q: ]- u' g( h+ M' \
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
# Q: m5 w% {5 b) v, k; Q
& r$ i; z3 J i$ o7 j$ bA=博彩资金# Q8 Y# F- J+ k7 `1 o4 O9 p1 j
P=获胜机会1 x! R0 l2 l( v, P% ]
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)4 z% {; S2 b, @- H$ {" ~5 Q
" \- I5 Z! d6 s1 Z3 I9 A首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。# a5 O% d5 X% k- O
9 Y2 \7 v6 p0 J2 x: \. h7 n好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。/ y3 s1 j% Q+ V/ j- G
/ p5 _, Q: Y# z9 K. G1 v4 Z9 U1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)7 i2 U/ j3 h9 m. ~6 r% c; M
0 F k% \. a' [7 y# O$ h! U3 X0 ^A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
1 X3 k. d$ r( g. [% Z% S& [) Y1 ]- W# c% ~3 i
A=0
2 u" @1 A( U+ M! P7 k- G6 ^, y& B9 h+ q& v
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)9 f; C/ N) s, c' s5 X; |$ A
6 i7 t: V, ^ W/ J2 \
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
7 j& t O% ]# m: z* o8 s6 P4 f$ u1 A
A=0.1
$ A4 b' a; a! O* i5 t+ I# Y8 c9 F6 p+ C2 I
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
0 F& _) X- i/ n7 L8 L2 f Q( G4 Z# o9 }2 [6 U# C6 s: n- }& X
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2), _: u: p9 q/ I% H/ ~
% B+ Z! e7 m, b
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1). a9 |& G j& u9 q
+ B8 R+ ]. X) {, l6 p/ x
A= -0.2 7 j7 i, m, Q: H6 r. _
4 c% R' B+ B( c* I3 X! u6 U结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
! ^3 R$ ?' ?% Z0 s
( k* W9 E5 V0 O1 y J第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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