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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
) m1 {1 P3 L) i* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
* ^/ }7 ]5 x. ?; D. H7 c凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: W, w: R6 k# p- j: ^* u; z! }3 [4 z9 |- k& v1 a
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
8 ]$ m8 @) F8 c什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [$ E; [' e. D( V9 S
+ [8 {' }7 p# O, Q A1 g* T& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
' v" _4 q1 b6 Y2 a! |3 g- G0 h既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
2 X9 s- [4 T5 @; Z/ ?0 e% d( H7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 L& e4 g" |/ @' |: r" @做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
4 C4 d8 H! q9 {2 z# m4 y; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d9 R7 Z8 A d8 q6 A9 I
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
2 Y/ d" p/ B g `) I: \( A) q5 `/ a+ l4 q8 M
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
2 v* b. \* }) Z. M$ t
6 a" `+ f. a0 g: X7 I1 @. G(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
, n# g$ N' g) d9 k! u* G$ g1 e* ~. u; G/ s- j
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 + h! X3 n, G1 x" P3 Q- k
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
* s' V Q$ t7 X# C7 L7 K9 _! K' i我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
9 c7 T6 Z( Q7 @! A+ M5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
$ D+ ~. g% j l( cS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
7 `& U: `3 Y3 ^ N: b. Z2 V- u0 U M* l2 a4 C: }$ @# G
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
, O5 W. U/ P* Y( i0 o! f& I% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s/ |/ N; `, }7 q A! |7 ]" t3 S
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
: G! c2 q1 N3 l$ p% _9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j$ _) k( G8 O9 i2 B
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \! D& u9 p4 V4 v. h
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
! {2 M9 R \# C& A) N# d* @) \1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ; p8 g" k- q8 i: z) a, M4 I! W& j
3 P( V$ c$ A" {# ]( X1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l$ z5 I# U' M# K3 A3 T6 B
: E ^- I6 V' A: I1 S, n6 D
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
+ m7 K* u k% m. O5 f
4 v$ w9 X1 ]9 I6 I7 x" n1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
# b8 I) ?' [. }4 t0 S: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
% a# c$ ?1 X) x/ N3 d" I2 {S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T* ?7 Z' b& I1 b
. ~: s# V8 Y6 M4 F类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
0 H t' v* ^5 T- C: j3 M/ j* z+ ]
% I% @/ t6 q1 k2 B+ }S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 5 J" Z' d. R" A" i" \
2 a# h1 q/ K5 ~: r
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s: q% s8 d/ t) _5 Z" d! Z! G
; m' V% T, u, P% O" l. B* i x3 L( t' `
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
2 j V5 D( M, x, W& h9 d6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
, r- `5 B. E; U+ ^1 [+ PS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
5 o, O, m; T) I: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~8 z9 D- g/ B- @' Y
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
* A w' N1 X: A: [9 l4 A9 I* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \' Y1 ~) U4 Y- X, A% [; ]/ w
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
" M" J/ J3 C! n" M7 w5 z/ U) q( ], k9 L T& t
! s6 V$ Z9 {( a" f u3 iB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
9 Z0 r& l4 Q- P- @6 D" G& B" O, w5 V) c9 P$ }- X
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
. a! l* v7 @! p& t. m. q- {6 e5 n" Q, c$ X) x9 Z& W1 ?
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! v8 F, `; j: m4 o( b9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
& ]5 |: L: R$ P% s" D$ c/ RG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
( W4 t2 g$ j( y0 A% l: E9 g+ D$ n) P# X# M [3 M' g) W8 n* c4 L" C- ?
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 3 }: i: r, B; r. @4 B. m
2 u# E* z2 U# A% \8 y- P' Y
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]" ~4 d! U0 C9 E. \, L4 f% O% Y
1 c! @7 E& W8 [" C: ~4 O当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \% u {- E8 ^/ g
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
7 p9 Q4 q0 h1 i' w0 v通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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