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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 " o" n9 ~- _6 U0 B8 g
+ c; c3 f" k- f) V其实原文标题不是这样的; N0 r1 q7 I; Q+ ]
" A' C" @9 D# g9 c5 M5 v4 x这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!, Z' H1 _4 [3 U6 L! F
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...: _, |! m8 r$ z/ w! J: m, y: }2 \
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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3 V( r; X! f9 t7 f$ Z5 o 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
# i- i( @& _% y4 q- y3 L& o* o ; R# S6 _& p4 D5 D+ j& _5 `3 ^
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
/ c1 R; k2 U: i8 m「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
& E0 s: M% ^$ }* C4 H: w2 o9 a: A1 `
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
( p* Y4 D0 H, u8 O因此铜板较容易出现正面。2 V0 u( K8 `' r; T2 p2 _
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
, f Y( I% r6 o& |& i6 e" K因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。7 ]! [6 i5 u [
心想赢定了。
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( z+ b7 I# I; ^3 s2 C3 B没想到开始不到半刻钟，* J! Q% j4 d, H4 O& m# q
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」: G+ a: C% c5 c8 Y+ B& e
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，' ]2 t2 f# p0 b
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。# F# q7 O* n& j+ J
' T) ]' S8 J" V- L赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
" m* l& H6 P7 G他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
3 @$ S0 z. m3 b2 Y5 O C. [
上帝回答道：
) S2 F. W9 S. o u: J/ |「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」: ]& d$ k E+ f* ?/ t3 |
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」6 t; b6 c- u% A- E: l
「而不是先发生在我身上。」0 W. s* ^9 R# S" _/ c% U
R+ I$ T! ?0 d3 v
赌徒恍然大悟，3 d1 N' I7 R' ~
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
1 _. j+ b {! J: o& k竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！# @; L' n; R" \' q0 ^0 \5 u
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」1 y5 Q9 e- l( T3 @; L0 q) R
上帝说完便不见踪影。 - y3 @4 k. e) H9 g, D. I6 g; z
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，# P h$ F0 T. X9 A' `* `% ~
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，8 U' P, P: q4 |- T E3 j7 q
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
& |' }# G# r: F对赌徒十分有利。
3 s& g: t% ]# x' a/ p" C0 T
" N: E& m D0 l8 b# }% w) ^9 b但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现， t6 s7 j+ w- m. N i' v. w
在还没掷到1000次之前，! {) C8 A4 n6 _) u5 d% X
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
* h# W# j3 F; n) ~" H5 {' u8 _( `" S, }7 ~0 q( r
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。6 R( E# n4 R0 d6 ~# n6 n1 f
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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$ N2 z* d+ z2 y) G- v( _ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，$ \( h+ T7 n; }6 o; e8 j
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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