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晨报金乡5月21日讯 今年金乡大蒜种植获得全面丰收。增产之下，金乡蒜农的惜售情绪也在增强。记者了解到，受去年高蒜价的影响，相当一部分蒜农称前期将保持观望情绪，部分蒜农甚至想在今年的大蒜行情中赌上一把。有蒜商认为，这种观望情绪将给市场带来不稳定因素，如果后期大蒜集中上市很可能会带来价格的再度走低。9 J$ a: _4 ]/ M4 y$ s# q
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5月21日上午，金乡县鱼山镇王杰村的王汉亭正在地里忙活着收获新蒜。“今年的产量要比去年高一些。”王汉亭称，去年他每亩地出产新蒜2500斤左右，今年的产量则达到了3000斤以上，增产高达25%。金乡县城关镇郭楼村的马汉宏也证实称，他们村每亩地的新蒜产量同样高达3000斤左右。( A( Q/ z8 s2 G8 O* M7 C8 g" U
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金乡县农业局信息科科长任德国对本报证实了大蒜增产的说法。“金乡县今年种植大蒜的面积在60万亩，比去年增加4万亩。”任德国表示，据他们测算，今年金乡每亩蒜地干蒜产量将达到1000公斤，而去年的产量仅为800公斤。按此计算，金乡今年干蒜的产量将比去年高出15200万公斤。
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大蒜增产是导致新蒜价格较去年出现大幅下滑的一个重要原因。5月21日，金乡普通大蒜的每斤收购价仍然保持在一块二三，较去年同期下降近半。“这个价格算下来，挣不了多少钱。”王杰村一范姓蒜农说，蒜种、肥料、薄膜、农药等各项成本加起来就得近2500元，而如果按照1.2元/斤的收购价，一亩地的收入才达到3600元左右。“费了人工不说，没有多少赚头。”
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& E. K4 _. _' Q2 g& d, z 这也正是王汉亭等蒜农决定“等等再说”的一个重要理由。王说，去年新蒜价格高，看到有利可图，不少蒜农卖了鲜蒜，但今年的价格和去年比下降了近一半，于是很多蒜农才想把蒜晾干了再卖。
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j0 j: o M" s A0 l 记者走访多个村庄了解到，部分蒜农不但想把蒜晾干了再卖，而且还想等到后期理想价格出售。“去年刚晾干就以3块多的价格卖了，但后来涨到了6块多。”马汉宏现在看起来仍有些后悔。因为这样一来，他的两亩地差不多少卖了近万元，因为担心今年的行情会复制明年的行情，马汉宏决定赌一次。“看看后期是什么价格。”$ k8 v7 u! K# _: k1 c
+ W( ?8 a4 k; h9 \# t 当然，类似马汉宏等蒜农也明白，他们这样的做法很容易带来风险，毕竟谁也把握不了整个市场的走势。但他们仍然愿意搏一次。“地里现在都种上棉花了，光棉花就够本了。”上述王杰村的范姓蒜农说，本来每年的大蒜行情就像Dubo。
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毋庸置疑的是，蒜农的这种惜售情绪将给今年的大蒜市场带来不稳定的因素。金乡当地一江姓蒜商分析称，如果这种情绪在蒜农中大面积存在，很容易造成前期蒜商无蒜可收的局面，但由于今年全国大蒜丰收，价格不可能达到去年的高度，因此当蒜农不再想博弈时，干蒜将大量入市，届时很可能带来价格的再度走低。 |
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