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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 1 a, b+ i' Y3 T; |) {+ C. c V1 h
余勋也不例外、 / E1 L; ^$ ?/ S1 ~
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 . g& m& l; R$ K0 T9 o& A( h
是保经济的重要决策！
) k6 J; I9 }6 F& t/ [3 Y6 ]这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 5 e% O; J* Z' ~3 {7 A) k- w& O: N
低点26700-32400、
; i! \ M; k% Z反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 : ~& t. N9 ^& L8 c
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
A2 o7 m, H* C8 `0 C- D大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
; K5 ]# x/ b% @& _& m涨幅就已回撤过半！ 2 ] X! Z' a; U0 O3 v9 Z
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
5 J0 X1 P& ?" U& d不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 6 w/ H- R% u( r9 K
其次、
, c, u# J9 h4 R8 D缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 8 B# p0 ^* J" n- U& e# P
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 [" d; R' O+ E0 X% K
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 * C, Q+ N6 N2 `1 F
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 + L9 Y( F, z, |/ x
但回到币圈、
6 e3 w& k2 A# ~去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
: Q5 I* o) k( N# y在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 % N; T# S" o3 y- r- M
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 2 b1 D" E" V4 G
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 7 t% e A: `1 {& ?
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
8 Y8 N: |( k! G" w. f8 l m: \: K& g对当前的底部、影响有限。
- Q3 z/ O; e; Y( X) N6 J最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
6 s. X3 r$ k( j' U所以27000、即是 $ r7 E" \8 c7 S
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） . Y0 w! {0 {& i, r- X% @& K; K/ T
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
8 W- B" g ]1 W. j; r9 W+ y W也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
5 P4 E. s. [7 n( e由此得出的结论是、
# h8 Z) H8 m6 T" K; P9 T加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 , Z6 w S8 @5 b4 R# m2 n
点位不会出现太大偏离。 3 h2 n; l2 T8 z8 W( C6 y$ w
综合以上、 ( z" K) a1 a W8 ]3 B
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
8 d! G" C+ }9 V0 d. f在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 0 D5 L- j/ ^0 A! n _" A: k/ \
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
$ S5 }$ o' o! W& j @ A7 S7 d8 g2 w抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
' j! `" o' Z- a那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
/ m) C' g- A% G! x0 |6 Z8 u& A1 u/ M+ t即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
1 o+ f' y, H% R5 T美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ( B. f4 y. Y" B. E3 n2 j
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
: q' J# R! l: n o7 c" L大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 " f5 J( H2 N& B* V) W8 [
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
2 c( S% t. U0 h$ F# A* r高空需至31700-32000间布局、
6 @! n3 h' _' |" B反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 " ^' F) w1 K: ^$ x2 i# {& ^ f) U# Z6 h
得不偿失。
0 Q4 \2 E( {! ~( f+ ^来源：金色财经 |
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