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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 / K6 t1 S, M( H: H* Q" I
余勋也不例外、
' j* A5 ?* p$ z: G: ~其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 7 ~, G. S5 A' u" U
是保经济的重要决策！ 0 I [8 B! B0 @1 F' w
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ( g o; }' y- x* j3 u: N
低点26700-32400、
* Z" r$ H* x, [/ ?1 ~; s反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
# r( w/ n9 F! k但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 9 Y" x. A5 y6 k3 r' I, |
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
) k: N- s% n/ E) S涨幅就已回撤过半！
: c/ i& F5 F9 |" P- d所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 # V) o5 T$ B# [/ M0 M$ O$ h1 [
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
/ E7 T2 V4 e+ ^( \8 {其次、
' X8 @" d. {: [3 J+ S4 d2 `2 ]缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 3 V2 o( ]$ Y M' o& j5 F
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 % K# Q* Y/ u( d# `3 V& f
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ! ?# \& N7 F: V! `" \& g
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 7 K6 ~9 M* q$ ^" X
但回到币圈、 . \& f+ n q# T6 A: v- @: A' C
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
4 ` H" t' j: W* z4 S% P% l在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ' j6 g2 d8 x; ~* d$ o) \, |
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
: v' i* y* b6 L0 E个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
; r/ d4 N' t, `* }9 ~- u缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 4 w1 k+ @1 w) `5 M
对当前的底部、影响有限。 0 i# Y( W' u5 N( E
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 4 x# v3 A" u, ?) L
所以27000、即是
( \% G" i1 c" P. f1 I4 k3 H( S去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） , P' Z9 g2 J. S- n& n6 M$ y( [
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 6 K+ q& Z0 d/ ? f+ y
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
/ G2 ?* k. k( n. W' t由此得出的结论是、
% G5 U' w5 R- _; \; Q加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
/ X! J# q, u# y点位不会出现太大偏离。
" Y+ S/ z& F, A, p: [综合以上、
! f# B8 a8 ]( n* p6 s5 j美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
4 g1 t$ h* b0 Q3 p- l5 ~7 X" C v在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
0 w& w) p# y% w8 s3 e" E那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 2 S$ ~- R8 g4 j* T( ^7 d3 f! M
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 , G* ^! O: i! ^ X8 V2 S
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
3 Y% A+ k$ O) f' i4 v即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 * X$ N. e6 e5 r4 ~9 _4 @' ]
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
' K8 c+ r& u( h1 \8 ~夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 " x: ~: H5 J0 ]# F6 r0 f! p/ n7 {
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 % c2 S0 k$ [9 p( G7 n6 r# n6 h
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
: A7 d0 A9 M3 u4 [, N高空需至31700-32000间布局、
, \# r" h- J6 [% [* t5 Z反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
8 k; n$ z6 q$ M4 U/ t! q2 h得不偿失。 . l8 `+ e% r5 G
来源：金色财经 |
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