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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为' q6 Y* M" p" ^" K7 V: B
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动， w; C. `9 I7 y# g! c* i$ S
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
, X- |8 b$ N- k Q一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
% t! K1 |& c" i- }: vBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。' U$ @ b n& `; N! O4 `/ I
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴： Y" i" O0 t u* y4 A: K9 w" c$ G
2024年4月第四次减半
9 Z' Y5 {" j5 {; [9 a机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF2 k; u! T! T1 d p! u( _0 D
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock), _! e" B) k* p% \5 R' o
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
) P/ W# u; W) B$ \* X二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务9 |( z7 l6 c9 ]1 ` n; @3 T
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
4 d: y/ _# l" [& n: ]* LPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠6 e& p9 e; p! p- i+ N) @8 J
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
( m% ? L/ t i, q7 c+ G+ h三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁+ M4 `# n# T0 \" _4 \& u" t; }4 d
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
, J, ~4 }) J" o' n) H6 i+ Q/ O金融(TradFi)产品。
n k- q! w* x0 R如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨5 m5 A9 ?6 R& q+ S" i
链桥」的项目。% O* A0 N# n) D
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉8 I, {& i; B/ C
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
% m3 [: G' W) g: @2 D+ l等。
% \5 k4 ?8 k- J% ~% n* {Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用% ?. ]* V7 J; h+ M3 e% t8 I
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。, R3 ^% H& H9 M" g# t" J
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN, j* o/ A3 e, x3 {
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位& `$ g( a Y" W
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。: L( }. W! n( Q/ d3 ^. l
Pantera点名了几个项目：# g& [% s. U! c* b9 M6 ^ b4 T2 F
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图/ Q Q' R; K# Z3 V* j) B
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台4 S* Z: l3 X2 P4 O e
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
; T4 H; R% M5 A% RThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
+ O( |2 }6 r7 { `. }Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游2 @" U; r- r; V9 P- {$ f
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
7 _2 j. |' j& z p& k" I& t/ |: qPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚+ t6 Y' y6 p4 W5 y( v/ y' \% G6 k" j9 i
至能直接与L2竞争。5 e( w5 l4 b5 G% b$ m. C
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
1 T* V* K& ~# lPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地$ u6 \- |2 R! s: b- T2 `' e
成为「应用链」。
$ `( u7 p- G8 T4 N事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
. ` X- l4 a' g: z* q' b# R, \1 c8 u+ W, O& u7 \( {8 b- c6 B: u6 T
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