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* m' Y5 e( H% L: ^( y加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
% |1 z' _+ {4 g9 U E: nDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
' \0 x3 y5 y- s衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
0 B! B2 z: k% K' P/ V: A一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
: T, l1 Y) D3 l1 `0 j) l9 D0 TBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
$ o/ `7 H( w4 t0 @Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：: M! q# ^; D9 ^' ]; O& ^. _3 g
2024年4月第四次减半& s* s; J" q! ~$ a( c
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
! d: b& T p, b, o& ?# }3 D可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)- z& h9 ^6 `2 M: H: o# h
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
# Q9 e+ ]: O1 ~* U8 j( Y4 F二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
7 l5 X. L4 U; q4 Ufriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。; c2 U* x# U' R7 T. u; P2 z$ N
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
% U1 v# G3 r w% ]诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。, F8 t3 F' y7 {- g% a
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
9 ]- }( D' J$ L; u* m% M& d. M除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
, a4 d- {3 x2 |9 |. x& Z% j金融(TradFi)产品。- D( p( l: {9 I9 D
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨6 k* N6 I1 X' j" i1 c; i+ V
链桥」的项目。' I/ @, d! ?6 C( I* U8 V2 c
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉0 l0 f- }7 |" q" |% O. G
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
2 n/ L0 w" v& h等。4 J, P% h5 R) ~
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用& C+ R3 q6 \( b
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
$ ?* n: W; d+ y五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
" ^' |1 v c* s C% C" MPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
) m2 K4 a! B+ [. O p0 Q数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
+ z2 M* [; a0 P& P) A8 O- rPantera点名了几个项目：9 Q4 ]" w! _1 k) S' V V
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图8 Y0 p% F4 Z0 B$ ]. D% J4 u( Y
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台9 U' T- g& P( g% g' Y3 t
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品3 @! q8 ^. B8 C) k# A
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
. B. O2 X1 ^, l ], kRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游8 z9 p& D- W4 ^: t* I; l M
六、小型公链需专注特定应用0 \" S/ _5 S+ _9 t- ]) ]
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚/ J7 L/ T2 t/ w# V0 t* F
至能直接与L2竞争。
. r o% X) F# p4 t也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
. h$ a: B$ r4 B/ f) F9 N9 ^Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地# c6 \* [5 l8 B( y% R# _
成为「应用链」。; H& ^& y- O# c1 m2 Q, `2 y% V( O. `
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。8 e, G3 h9 W( }6 ]/ e) ~3 v
1 e% Z# a- `, p+ U |
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