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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘# q8 B2 _6 M4 q$ v9 M
     ( y  r- p6 f& |; |% j7 \+ ^
     平手中水,主队有利
6 w& Y) v' }" ^8 g; D2 Q. K% k     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
- p* D8 j( Y( h     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
* u4 i2 P$ @* }' k1 I; _; M     英超主队3 t" ~; S- ^. w5 |) g/ c6 K1 I: x
     胜:13场 48%
- |# J7 J0 p: v0 k     平:5场 17%
# H6 K: }% B- z& M9 |1 G' n+ D     负:9场 35%6 s$ d" o! E4 }* X% d5 b/ d
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 f9 M* a6 j/ Z0 a+ l* s
     9 x3 s. W) w* U/ m/ h$ S; a' @: h
     一、初盘阶段+ n4 [( f6 A! Y1 w8 k
     具体到水位如下:
& V% m9 q, x, ]     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
! X; E0 `1 r2 R  s$ C1 z/ q; U$ N     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
: i. W- |- l# V; H1 P, c     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负' h# [2 f' f6 Q0 d- J
     0 ~9 `- I% ~8 i6 \/ A) N
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。6 I; p5 L. ?# }* b" W5 Z0 C
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。6 r( L4 `0 E' v0 Y' A& x
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) J2 B( \" X  \7 M     
6 P: l  @$ ]9 \+ C4 g1 Y     二、临场阶段( I! C1 E* X- h# Z8 F+ P1 j2 j' T4 \
     
# D2 R- @* E3 B3 @& L1 ^0 B$ r     具体到变盘和水位如下:
% B4 L4 C& ?  {$ {! J0 P5 M     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负  N) U+ ]* O1 m8 n! F1 g: Z) V
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负5 J; I" n, @; C6 ?! N2 e5 a+ [( ?
     : @+ o  I0 [% W$ Y$ P: n
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。5 |- ]5 x4 d2 u, V/ L( w$ C- {
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
2 B1 S: Q$ v2 f     0 Q" J  P5 b6 A& A& D/ t* H/ j2 a
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
8 H& f+ p6 C7 p4 R9 S% ?  d     初盘:0.82平手1.04
" Z0 I$ ~) ^+ V  X3 T" p& f1 H     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
5 D* A- F" T* X7 G, m5 k# q4 d     1 {9 f, t/ N2 Z# j
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆. C/ z( u# m" q4 Z+ z- N
     初盘:0.76平手1.105 E" r! W9 c5 f" M3 a6 W. ^/ n" ~& C5 s- H
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
% a( B( r  \# }) \4 g+ k# z! H2 H     : \# O1 @6 w. p% O
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技; [) ^) q7 F8 P9 M2 _
     初盘:0.82平手1.045 S3 V! h0 ^! T  v
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98- b! Y, w8 ~5 B& }
     ; s  O" U: u+ D3 s* m6 o$ }& o
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆" A, k' z/ w5 X' d. c% @" t
     初盘:0.88平手0.98. B9 T0 i2 w8 k8 M6 u* X
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74; z0 Q( \, Y# f  w1 h& s* |7 P9 \
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。" S; M$ y8 K. X: q! H% r; c6 H
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
! K0 u/ D# H% F/ R, A     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。/ E+ [# ~6 I2 Q; M
     
6 g  v# v- W; o     三、球队表现2 b9 \# `/ i+ e3 a
     
, O9 F( n  x; }( {5 h, ]     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。0 }: Q9 _4 j( s- ^
     # Q3 X" r2 T4 T5 Q! D) v* f
     四、投注要点
  a( ?7 ]/ i( t2 c- O: @$ f     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
/ N& ]8 Z! ^$ f5 e! R# Q     要点2:平手降盘、走两头! l6 Z2 A0 g3 M+ d- s" f
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
& O  n. o8 k( i! o8 j1 Y% c     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
' h; C' J- Q2 ~3 E$ D5 ^. ?' c5 W- S     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 C9 ?; a' c; Q  T+ a
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
2 A1 s7 U- R- M1 A8 ?. Z/ R( M/ Y+ W     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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