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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。. l5 z5 R/ G) S9 P
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。+ E( O5 m( M H# v! g. ?7 }- x
7 q: ]$ \! v* L2 T( e; Q 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而7 ~" Z( ], @6 x l/ e
3 I! d$ k6 D. h3 X7 p- d g“短期看空”比特币。6 d& W# J( X& }1 J7 e' q
w! w0 [* Y) g: V" _( T# t( ] “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已6 A) H% D ~6 w1 _) W. e, Q- a9 b% K! t
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”/ z9 F! X( e2 q; H2 y- N5 T1 v
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。2 [% ?# a) r5 j8 L* u. _
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# \/ b' R5 ^9 O5 D; F 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，( N3 J9 m3 O) C
1 s4 A( D5 P7 L. j# y6 r( g而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。$ a0 u. N$ a J% }1 N: u
) |3 s; Z/ n) [; ]/ }( Q5 C BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的' K# K! f& d7 |1 _0 {9 i( h
9 Q& R. A( y9 n% ~$ ~! t利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”; Y+ u" y$ L9 l6 ^
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，' {! y4 T5 u8 Z+ d
3 W6 G( N+ i6 ~3 j将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”* |9 o" s' ]/ a, S0 r3 b+ L5 M. i! e
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