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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。! C8 H4 C; Q) a" x% f& }1 L2 A
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
" k* f6 `. j& ?* B* \( W" X过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
# C5 s4 \6 Z; b) M6 t' c) I( U$ O# P" ]+ o
其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。* o( A1 P1 [) H) I+ x9 ?9 `; a
0 g$ T# C0 B6 P% @+ V& J7 ZAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:2 z' A! D, N- m
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。3 z" o2 }5 p& A6 J
3 U8 w* B' N- }, v因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。! M5 V) Y5 F% l$ S+ G v9 J
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BTC 图表暗示了什么
4 m# @, i" N, C7 Y+ d0 B虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。: W1 L5 e! S2 @$ ?% |
( r3 g4 L& ^) Y+ `1 I0 s7 Z* x首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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* u/ o6 C, V! ]- Z从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
3 K' `1 b, f7 Q9 x
+ @; U, J) Q* L. z+ i, {6 L+ z比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
9 Y p- L j; K( e
* x5 k0 ~8 ^ N- e* R- i当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。5 L% k8 L7 f& K& z+ T
. P0 T r. [/ H7 R7 T最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
6 N& e9 u+ ?6 s6 ^. l0 U# u9 p7 X6 j, Z9 s) r
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。7 J% A. k; X5 {6 V/ [* h
; a$ l7 {. K5 E截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。
; G, K0 r) N* C) r
5 H6 K3 c9 R( z/ |( y" @简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。% J! X7 }. z; z+ H
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。8 _, w |1 i/ w1 {# s* ]/ Z3 t
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