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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
6 i) u5 D8 u7 r尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。$ Z0 R; i. y2 @% z
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
9 ?! B3 x n; d$ r$ m; o. }7 e" t: `2 b5 K" D
Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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0 ~; O0 ` t& Q4 o“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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- s" [$ {. _2 J7 P7 k% i- I6 N平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。6 A |1 q* a; L. V
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。+ W, u8 m# b4 C" A
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BTC 图表暗示了什么# ~7 g; P9 I- c/ r
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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- L, W. O2 B. E: t首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。* Y) h8 d) k; W j4 z( y
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
1 @1 s9 O2 d7 n5 T; }" X$ R4 H2 G" p5 v' t' ?
比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。- S) d* \* d$ O/ ~/ y, z! Y
+ ]$ q0 z/ N9 _% H/ d6 t4 L最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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. A% T5 z+ F) Q" f# r3 P+ v截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。' q3 i3 W. J# P8 ^' ]+ O% M' w. h. k
# T8 M7 r$ N! F3 Y/ \/ v简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。! d5 v6 w! x; T6 W0 Y& B
. |- @2 w `0 ] K' f3 q1 y如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。; L$ e( \: k6 D
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