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[lastpost] => 2798212 华尔街股市上涨，以太坊下跌——但ETH/BTC汇率却呈现出另一番景象。（转） 1768800881 whywhy
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美国银行的ICEMOVE 指数衡量美国国债未来四周预期波动率的指标（该指标被广泛追踪）已降至58这是自10月以来的最低读数。2021， 根据TradingView此外，这标志着自去年4月开始的下跌趋势的延续，预示着全球债券市场将迎来一个明显更为平静的局面。# P) y6 K6 c$ h( D
: v" ^: X& T6 f$ O美国财政部该市场被视为全球金融的基石，拥有卓越的信用质量和极低的违约风险。其债务被广泛用作贷款、衍生品和其他金融工具的抵押品，有效地支撑着全球大部分金融体系和日常流动性。
# P% U4 Z% O( [
; ] Y9 Q- y3 h+ S: b/ i+ F当国债价格剧烈波动时，信贷环境往往会收紧，贷款机构也会变得更加谨慎，这会降低实体经济和金融市场的风险承担水平。然而，当价格波动较为平缓时，信贷创造通常会变得更加容易，从而鼓励投资者将更多资金配置到风险更高的资产，例如……加密货币货币和成长型股票。, A# Z8 |1 a5 o0 J" E$ U; A
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比特币交易价格接近 96,300 美元，波动性下降
4 d. p6 v) H6 V* u+ D7 U当前的债券市场环境越来越有利于债券价格上涨。比特币即贸易大约96,300 美元以及主要科技股也就是说，这种较为平静的环境是在数字资产价格经历了一次急剧调整之后出现的。2022以及强劲的价格复苏2023这凸显了宏观环境如何迅速改变市场情绪。
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e2 {( @1 _- K9 C5 B比特币已经聚集起来10%自年初以来，这促使分析师预测该股将进一步上涨。10万美元这是自11月中旬以来的首次。国债价格波动趋于平稳以及机构投资者兴趣重燃，共同强化了市场对当前形势的预期。比特币上涨行情可能达到六位数。
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( Z6 U# {! i1 m) y1 [) i6 T与纳斯达克100指数和MOVE指数的相关性仍然至关重要
/ d1 o, S6 E7 X0 H! l: C一些支持者描述比特币作为数字黄金，其交易历史表明它与华尔街科技股的关系更为密切。纳斯达克100指数此外，它的走势通常与指数的走势相反。MOVE 指数该指数追踪美国国债隐含波动率，并作为ZF债务市场压力的晴雨表。, e) ~. B, J p% U4 b- I9 s% @
: Q! J: t( g3 K8 N) b% y这种与 MOVE 指数的反向关系在比特币暴跌期间仍然存在。2022以及始于……的整个牛市行情2023实际上，债券波动性下降的时期往往与加密货币和成长型股票需求增强的时期相吻合，这进一步印证了以下观点：移动指数下跌可以对投机性资产起到顺风作用。: u/ Z1 d" g9 T" e) Q" s
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背景有利，但宏观风险依然存在。/ u1 r5 h- i+ Q6 d; C$ E: ~/ q9 h
目前国债波动率的下降并不能保证未来进一步上涨，任何单一信号都不应被视为精准的择时工具。然而，当前债券市场趋于平静、价格上涨势头强劲以及持续的利好因素，共同构成了当前债券市场趋于稳定的重要因素。比特币ETF资金流入这为看好数字资产的观点又增添了一层依据。
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' D0 M0 R0 j9 c, R- s3 [, ~市场仍面临潜在的不利因素，尤其是如果地缘ZZ紧张局势加剧的话。我们。和伊朗如果因延误而产生的沮丧情绪加剧，澄清法案加密货币监管法案不断增加此类事态发展可能会迅速降低风险偏好，提醒交易员，即使是强劲的市场环境也可能带来风险。比特币上涨行情仍然容易受到宏观经济和政策预期突然变化的影响。
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7 X( K, s+ D% p# G总而言之，MOVE 指数读数为 58，表明美国国债波动性已降至 2021 年 10 月以来的最低水平，这有助于支撑比特币和其他风险资产持续上涨的总体趋势，即使投资者仍对地缘ZZ和监管风险保持警惕。
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债券稳定了，比特币受益啦！投资者瞅准机会往高风险资产上赌 |
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