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[lastpost] => 2801490 昨日美国 Solana 现货 ETF 净流入 670 万美元，总净流入已达 8.84 亿美元 1769669226 比推快讯
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本轮下跌观点汇总：市场已不存在熊市质疑声音，下跌行情将更为缓和且跌幅有限，看好 6-7 万美元时尝试初步抄底
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比推消息，加密市场今日迎来进一步的下跌，比特币最低跌至 74,604 美元，以太坊跌至 2166 美元，SOL 则时隔约 300 天再次失守 100 美元。与此同时，现货金银也不复此前强势，黄金失守 4500 美元/盎司，白银失守 74 美元/盎司，美股指数期货、日韩股市同步下跌。加密市场未能出现此前预计的资金回流行情，以下是整理本轮下跌前后主要分析观点：
Tom Lee 在参加播客时承认，当前加密市场处于熊市阶段，短期承压严重。ETH 可能触及 2400 美元作为底部。（已跌破）
Real Vision 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Raoul Pal 表示，预计 1011 暴跌事件中 CEX 被动吸纳了大量资产（可能高达 100 亿美元左右的库存）。而市场此后的长期弱势原因在于当时接盘的 CEX 每日通过算法在美股开盘时段集中抛售，以逐步卖出库存。Raoul 预计本轮抛压消化期到 2 月底基本出清，并认为抛压出清后比特币将快速补涨。
ARK 创始人 Cathie Wood 再次暗示比特币将补涨，她表示，比特币、以太坊、Solana 乃至 Hyperliquid 或许能成为有效的分散投资标的。自 2020 年初以来，比特币与黄金的价格相关性系数仅为 0.14，维持在极低水平。值得注意的是，在比特币近两次大牛市周期中，黄金价格走势均领先于比特币。
CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，由于抛售压力持续，且没有新的资金流入，比特币价格持续下跌。但除非 Saylor 大幅抛售持仓，否则市场不会出现像以往周期那样 70% 的暴跌。当前市场底部尚未明确，但此次熊市可能会形成范围广泛的横盘整理。
Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen 表示，其认为 2023–2025 的牛市已结束，2026 年整体是消化阶段或熊市年。其预计比特币将持续缓慢下跌，熊市势头至少持续到 2026 年中，可能到夏季或 Q3/Q4 才见底。潜在目标包括测试 200 周均线（200WMA，大约 6-7 万美元）。本轮熊市下跌将更慢、更不剧烈（不像以往 70-80% 崩盘），因为顶部是在冷淡市场中诞生的，而非极度狂热，但 2026 仍然是熊市年。
Alliance 联合创始人 Qiao Wang 在社交媒体上发文表示，其在心理上已经做好（比特币）跌到 3-4 万美元的准备，但不预测会跌到该位置，如果到 6-7 万美元则会开始慢慢买入。真跌到 3-4 万美元位置，则将 All in 买入。
此外，知名交易员 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 以及方程式新闻创始人 Vida 于近期表示已抄底入场，但都已于 2 月 1 日再次宣布已避险卖出离场。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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