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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。 X5 n7 `* G _* K- e- ^6 S( Z. B
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
, l7 m: T- u, @* E; Y" c' U8 s% S# @8 Y9 s! @
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:8 D k/ x5 t! q
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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- E/ w9 l2 g4 ?, A/ y答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)6 K. ?3 [% ?4 c8 Z# v6 W9 b) y
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?0 b& a$ ?- F l+ v
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盈利可能性1 b! R" R5 F: V9 N* u2 ^4 N7 x
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# b2 @4 R0 e! I, o0 A* x, p
% s8 ?0 Q; n# |! u5 N$ W) R: I1 i增值/ d( g% f" V0 H- _8 o4 p
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。: T' a1 M, L! k4 a
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?2 D1 }( K* Y9 Q5 c/ {
( x8 L& W n* C4 K" Sa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么2 y2 x: B( t1 C: F- Q
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
7 g8 u8 U7 I! c q& K4 o) u60%的机会你会一无所有
2 L8 i. l+ K4 V, Y4 {0 f. E预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
" |9 {# L4 G7 o' Y由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。0 z' o* o9 f: I# r! p
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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4 I6 {; m0 T# O9 y2 g凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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: x) Y* V9 a- ^' j" c' M公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" X. q4 h; S9 H/ g6 I
9 B1 y: F1 c, p/ Y6 P# |, D" DA=博彩资金3 m4 [; W1 \7 o: H
P=获胜机会
8 I! T, g8 B3 B% P6 K5 N2 U+ BO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。- ^" T5 O$ d( b- a6 H$ Q& G; A! u
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)( @3 k* ^) n0 U1 }
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A=0
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& b J+ m' T" Y0 _$ ^% Q. o* q结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢$ J9 i2 r4 ?% N& {4 v
' W9 J' v6 q0 r2 p* ^2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)3 v* ] _# l2 y' C
. L) I X) H, M- u; CA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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. P1 o( U+ K1 B结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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# t: _" v6 h# X+ I' p8 Z- p3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)6 N6 U0 K. ^, N" y- f+ ~7 g* M+ U
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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