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[lastpost] => 2637857 百家乐打法-积小胜为大胜-转载 1714833466 ieerxwcbb
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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。. Z4 n: D" j* ?
, o4 R: s0 T. n! ?9 M) n9 ]一般来说,+ T# ?1 c6 C$ a, O
6 d5 M2 N, B: U二连赢的概率是25%
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三连赢的概率是12.5%1 n( |' S; E$ @: v/ M
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四连赢的概率是6.25%8 r( X" i8 D1 x, }% S( F6 z% u! h8 s
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……
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. D7 p/ L8 v, i十连赢的概率是0.09765625%
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这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。. F% M" _5 e3 d7 T0 F$ Y2 @
) M$ `8 C4 U/ j* ^+ y; Q, k; F- g百家乐的真实概率含义是:( `( |/ U6 O3 u% Y2 T
) \8 ?9 b: `4 u% z, a假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球; r+ T( V" s: \' `% T
' O* U" e) I5 l% b6 I# w h1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。
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+ e( {+ L; h: y- v9 s! n你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。6 ?: Q! w/ B9 P' @* X; V
1 F) S8 D D+ \" G2 G- Y& M* ~# g你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。0 O5 x$ s1 v3 {4 @ h
" u: L* z+ n: k+ X/ m- v0 Q另外一个说法是,& W% W& _2 K( \' j, S6 a( Y1 u
$ L" K9 h. |0 w$ n1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。$ E6 y2 K+ Z+ S6 _2 {4 |# ]
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2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。
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9 I- A# m( ]! R" z0 g平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。: H" E7 C5 z+ h2 I6 h1 A
& A1 E, d+ A7 T- q1 Z' Z' b; q对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。. s- f2 w& u0 F9 c5 M$ l+ l/ }' L
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举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。1 E2 l; D8 m8 V
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第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化
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- ?* I0 w0 q/ w第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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8 K' h. l1 {. d8 S首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。
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2 k; p z0 s, e7 N! Q) ?因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。
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