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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。
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一般来说,
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二连赢的概率是25%) g# n6 a: Z4 `( ^
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三连赢的概率是12.5%
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四连赢的概率是6.25%
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8 k1 C1 I+ _" q8 [; ~……
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8 ^+ u2 p' t) t7 {* ], b9 A* X5 m9 D* E十连赢的概率是0.09765625%# K$ s2 ?6 s* Q0 s Y9 N
m7 y0 z" P1 o& i% j, k这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。( [- g& t) r; i& e1 R% q* D
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百家乐的真实概率含义是:" t0 {; s' P% z
: t8 Y n: o$ w! u' Z0 I假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球+ c3 e E9 ~. {& n' r+ O/ E
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1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。$ r$ v0 F7 n6 X# I# I, S* t+ F" u$ t+ l7 b
) C( z n; M6 [5 a% X* l你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。' h. a- h3 o+ n
$ T( h8 T) v9 S. G9 }/ O! ~你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。+ F+ P% D& k8 i3 s1 P' T
% y! Y! R8 x( ^8 K5 N/ ~8 k9 r另外一个说法是,$ {/ b1 g6 k9 M1 x) {
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。
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2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。
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( ~) H, d7 q9 M, D平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。 ]7 ?0 b2 t9 C5 p# ?
6 p3 N z/ X5 G4 M% K对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。
' A2 W5 f& `1 H
/ F+ t& \1 c4 L1 K1 k举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化
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第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。' J4 k& ] N. z& V/ } ?
% n; m1 H' M4 ~( i d. ]+ U首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。' x. @% C. ~: ~ I1 z8 W- I$ A
9 F( U$ n3 E' J: ?; `% M9 G事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。 A, W6 e4 c+ p/ c
7 Q1 T/ y5 a4 ^: ^, A0 h" v- E因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。# T: e7 b5 x2 e
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