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[lastpost] => 2773627 【星宝】10月14日投注流水75600元 1760753569 舞出精彩
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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。, ~% ~/ D, o/ r' \! C) k5 p: o' W
+ R- o6 v0 `: d7 J3 v- x) a+ m一般来说,. |# u: \. ?# Z0 X" d
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二连赢的概率是25%, W8 Y/ ?. D# V& y; k) z3 o
0 v0 M7 W0 x* J9 \ s5 d1 g# t( V8 A三连赢的概率是12.5%
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四连赢的概率是6.25%
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十连赢的概率是0.09765625%
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这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。
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百家乐的真实概率含义是:
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I8 P4 ^8 }! L' d! \+ `假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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9 ?- @ {# p) T: N6 h4 o1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。0 h2 R( B. c3 R0 k3 f
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你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。
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另外一个说法是,
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。
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9 H' R4 g! q" ^1 Q' p( I6 M. j2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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* s% ]6 R& q: w; P X再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。- q( I/ Z9 a2 i, H6 J7 [7 Q& m- }
8 y, U* w+ E9 q! l0 l1 q5 U平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。( [+ e% @( Q. u) u" x0 S
* ]: O. Y# o6 t7 ]举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化
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! W, V4 O; r$ V a第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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! n, G1 q. j1 V& t6 q首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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) C+ ^+ F ^4 N7 Q, Q$ t* G1 }8 i事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。- C% y; E7 y" e' g
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因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。3 h* @1 e2 {2 n/ u7 K& M
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